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Best NBA Over/Under Bet: Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Utah Jazz on Feb. 28

My Deadspin re-debut did not go as planned. A narrow one-goal overtime loss derailed our hockey over/under bet last night, but today I come back to you with another total—this one on the hardwood.

In the event of Anthony Edwards’ one-game suspension—after his two technical fouls in last night’s loss to the Lakers lifted his season total to 16—the Timberwolves’ budding superstar is forced by rule to sit out the next contest.

That comes tonight in Utah against the Jazz, where the two Northwest Division residents meet with a total of 226.5 points.

Don’t be fooled by Utah’s Western Conference-worst 14-44 record. While the Jazz aren’t anywhere close to sniffing a playoff berth in 2025, this is a club that could actually be decent if it could stay healthy.

Its quartet of solid talent—Lauri Markkanen, Collin Sexton, John Collins and Jordan Clarkson—have all missed numerous games this year. As it stands, Markkanen is the only one ruled out for tonight, while the other three are listed as game-time decisions.

The Wolves, meanwhile, will also be dealing with their own key absences. Aside from Edwards being out for disciplinary reasons, Minnesota won’t have Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle or Donte DiVincenzo due to injuries.

That means the Timberwolves’ leading scorer from tonight’s roster is Naz Reid with 14.9 points per game. Only one other player—Jaden McDaniels—is averaging double digits.

When fully healthy, both teams rank near the bottom third of the league in scoring. Utah is No. 19, averaging 112.2 points per game, with Minnesota right behind at 111.9.

Removing Edwards from the equation is about as meaningful as it gets compared to any other star in the league. Not only does the 23-year-old rank fourth in the NBA in scoring with 27.3 points per game, but his 20.8 field goal attempts per game also rank fourth.

In addition, Edwards ranks 10th in the NBA in free throw attempts, getting to the line 6.1 times per game. From an offensive perspective, there might be no more impactful player to his team than Edwards, which shouldn’t be too surprising.

The Georgia product has missed two games this season, and the results were felt on offense—the Wolves averaged just 108.5 points in those contests, and the under hit both times.

That’s exactly what we’ll be shooting for here. Minnesota is missing a massive amount of scoring and does not possess enough depth to account for it. The Jazz might be getting some of their injured players back in the lineup, but they’re still banged up.

All of this roster activity would seem to point to a lower-scoring affair at the Delta Center.

Pick: Under 226.5 (-110, BetMGM)

NBA Betting Record: 16-13, +0.74 unit
Over/Unders: 5-4
Everything Else: 11-9

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit.

Follow me @MattZylbert on Twitter/X for potentially another pick(s) added there.


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Knicks and Nuggets Blow Big Leads: What Went Wrong in Game 2?

Roughly 5,000 feet of elevation separate Denver and New York City.

Still, gravity works the same regardless of where one stands. Just ask the NBA teams in both towns.

“You get too high, and you get, I don’t want to say cocky, but feeling yourself,” Nuggets guard Tim Hardaway Jr. said.

That sensation went south on either side of the country Monday night.

After squandering sizable leads that would have cemented commanding 2-0 advantages in their respective first-round playoff series, the Nuggets and Knicks now find themselves bracing for a fight.

Should their opponents ultimately have their number, Denver and New York will look back with disdain on 19 and 14. Those were the Game 2 cushions the teams coughed up as the No. 3 seeds in the Eastern and Western Conference.

“It’s a game we should’ve won,” Knicks guard Josh Hart said. “In the playoffs, we can’t give away games.”

Be that as it may, the Knicks did just that against the Atlanta Hawks. They controlled the outcome for much of the night and took a 12-point edge into the fourth quarter after leading by as many as 14.

Then New York shot 5-for-22 from the floor in the final 12 minutes compared to 10-for-15 for Atlanta. Fighting through vulgar chants from the Madison Square Garden faithful, Hawks star CJ McCullom scored six straight points down the stretch during one key sequence on the way to a game-high 32.

“In that fourth quarter, you could tell [the Hawks] were playing with a level of desperation,” Knicks coach Mike Brown said. “There were four 50-50 balls, and they got three of the four. We always use that stat to gauge the level of aggression in a game. In that fourth quarter, their aggression stepped up.”

New York’s melted at the same time. How many late possessions saw the Knicks pass or hold the ball around the perimeter before settling for subpar looks from 3-point range? The Knicks went 3-for-11 from deep as part of their flop.

Denver led the Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points early in the second quarter before crumbling. The Nuggets still were ahead by three points to start the fourth quarter but a combined 2-for-12 shooting effort from pillars Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray in the final 12 minutes took a toll.

“I feel like we had the game in hand, and then we just didn’t make our shots,” Murray said.

As with the Knicks and Hawks, the reversal of fortunes stemmed both from the hosts’ miscues and an outstanding effort from a visiting player, as Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards had 30 points.

“Great leadership, positive,” Timberwolves coach Chris Finch said. “He recognized he needed to get into attack mode and get downhill a little bit more. He did that.”

The Knicks and Nuggets no doubt sensed the need to amp up their own urgency as things started slipping away Monday.

That neither could act upon it didn’t signal the end for either New York or Denver, of course. But now there’s unnecessary added weight for the climb back to the top.

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Pistons seek return to identity vs. Magic after Game 1 shocker

NBA: Playoffs-Orlando Magic at Detroit PistonsApr 19, 2026; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Pistons forward Tobias Harris (12) is defended by Orlando Magic guard Desmond Bane (3) in the second half during the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

After an exceptional regular season, this wasn’t the start to the NBA playoffs that the Detroit Pistons envisioned.

Reeling from a stunning Game 1 loss in which only two players reached double figures, the Eastern Conference’s top seed heads into Game 2 Wednesday against the visiting Orlando Magic facing early pressure to reset the best-of-seven series.

The eighth-seeded Magic controlled the opener from the start, never trailing and leaning on a balanced offensive attack. Paolo Banchero led the way with 23 points while Franz Wagner scored 11 of his 19 in the fourth quarter to help close out the 112-101 win.

For Detroit, the issue wasn’t just the loss — it was how it happened. The Pistons never established their defensive identity and struggled to find consistent offense beyond star guard Cade Cunningham, two areas that will be central entering Game 2.

“It starts, always, with us defensively,” said Pistons coach J.B. Bickerstaff. “When you go back and watch the film of that (game), we weren’t ourselves defensively. The telling tale is typically when we play them, they go to the free-throw line a ton.

“… We went 38 (times) but they went 19. So that means we weren’t playing our brand of basketball, being physical, being handsy, being aggressive. That kind of sets the tone for us.”

Offensively, the Pistons leaned on Cunningham, who scored 39 points, but got little other support — scoring their fewest points in nearly three months, since a loss to the Phoenix Suns on Jan. 29. Detroit will need more help from All-Star center Jalen Duren, who was held to just eight points and seven rebounds in Game 1.

“They came out ready from the jump,” Duren said. “We didn’t really meet their intensity. They’ve been playing with their backs against the walls the last few weeks, so they were already kind of already rolling. I think we just got to do a better job meeting that intensity.”

Duren said the Pistons remain confident despite the loss, which extended their home playoff losing streak to 11 games, the longest in NBA history.

“We know the type of team we are,” Duren said. “We feel like we’re the better team. We know that we’ve just got to make adjustments and come out smarter, come out playing harder.”

Orlando coach Jamahl Mosley said he has talked to his team about not becoming too overconfident coming off Sunday’s win.

“It’s one game at a time,” Mosley said of his message to the team. “It’s the reality that, yeah, you did get the Game 1 win, but now you have to go and figure out how to get a Game 2 (win). There’s going to be, obviously, the positive talk about what you’ve done, and thinking there’s reasons to celebrate, but at the end of the day, it’s one game, and that’s the most important piece that we’ve talked about: just taking it one game at a time.”

Banchero said the team has received the message, and he believes the key for the Magic is to play defense like they did in the opener.

“I thought we were on a string, just communicating, talking out coverages,” Banchero said. “I think it’s just going to continue to take that, being aggressive, being the aggressors on defense and just not trying to give them much. Obviously they’re going to make shots, but just not trying to give them any free looks.”

–Field Level Media

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Lynx star Napheesa Collier (ankle) targets June for on-court work

Basketball: Unrivaled:Semi-Finals Vinyl vs Phantom BCMar 2, 2026; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Unrivaled Co-founder Napheesa Collier at Barclay’s Center. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Lynx said Tuesday that star forward Napheesa Collier’s rehab from left ankle surgery is “progressing as expected,” and she could resume on-court activities in early June.

The team plans to release updates on Collier’s progress when available.

The timeline means Collier will miss, at minimum, the first month of the WNBA season, which begins May 10 for the Lynx.

Collier underwent surgery on her ankle on March 24 after sustaining a severe injury during the 2025 playoffs. Per reports at the time, she sustained a Grade 2 tear of three ligaments in the ankle and a muscle in her left shin on a collision during Game 3 of the playoff semifinal series vs. Phoenix.

Collier, 29, averaged a career-high 22.9 points and shot 40.3% from 3-point range to go with 7.3 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.5 blocks per game last year. The back-to-back WNBA Most Valuable Player runner-up, Collier is a five-time All-Star and earned MVP honors in the 2024 Commissioner’s Cup final and the 2025 All-Star Game.

–Field Level Media

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