The World Cup final is here, with a matchup between Argentina and Spain that should have the football world salivating.

Spain are the reigning European Champions. Argentina, the defending World Cup champions and two-time reigning Copa America holders.

Here are our three best bets for the encounter in East Rutherford, N.J.

Moneyline

You won’t find many sportsbooks offering the money line draw at a price north of +200 odds. And while that may seem steep, both history and circumstances suggest that’s the value play.

Over the entire course of World Cup history, 8 of 21 true finals have ended level after 90 minutes. And that includes a previous, much-higher-scoring era of the sport that lasted through the late 1950s.

Since goals per game came down in the 1960s, that ratio has increased to 7 of 16 finals.

And the relative ease of Spain’s semifinal victory, combined with the drama of Argentina’s fightback a day later, has obscured the fact that these sides are pretty even analytically.

Spain holds the highest expected-goal difference of the tournament at 11.2, but Argentina is second at 10.4.

Given the finals trend, that’s enough evidence to back the 90-minute draw trend here at +210 odds and an implied 32.3% probability.

Moneyline: Draw (+210, theScore)

Goal bands

The trend for total goals in World Cup finals is not particularly clear. But there is a pretty consistent trend for both these sides over 90 minutes in knockout play.

Both Spain and Argentina are teams that aspire to be ball dominant. It’s a style that rarely leads to 0-0 draws, but also rarely leads to super high-scoring encounters.

In 90 minutes, each of these sides have seen the total land on 2 or 3 goals in three of their four knockout round fixtures. That was also true in three of Spain’s four fixtures at the 2024 European Championships and two of Argentina’s three knockout matches at the 2024 Copa America.

Maybe it won’t happen here. But at +100 odds and an implied 50% probability, you like betting on those chances.

Goal band: 2 or 3 total goals (+100, DraftKings)

To lift the trophy

The oddsmakers are giving a slight edge to Spain here, which is probably reflective of their slight expected-goal superiority and maybe their perceived more difficult tournament path.

But the gap between these sides is small enough that matter, and those favor the Argentines.

For starters, Argentine fans have relentlessly followed this team across the United States, creating cauldrons of support that sound like home stadiums. Crowds aren’t the only factor that creates a quantifiable home-field edge, but they are part of it.

Argentina also have the experience of playing at this stage in the previous World Cup. Spain have also played in big matches, but World Cups are different. If you were going to nitpick their run so far, you might point out that they haven’t played against anyone from beyond the European continent in the knockout stage.

Lastly, the Argentine mindset here is a dangerous combination of unified but not overly pressured. The Albiceleste very much want to send out their greatest player on a high, and there is no debate about their national identity. But they are not under the same burden as four years ago when they were trying to prove Messi’s greatness and end a 36-year drought.

Spain have always had a more complicated relationship with their national squad, in part because of Basque and Catalan separatist sentiments.

These don’t transform a 75-25 game. But they can swing a 58-42 encounter to a true coinflip. I believe that’s the case here, and that’s why I’m betting on Argentina to lift the trophy at +130 odds and an implied 43.5% probability.

To lift the trophy: Argentina (+130, DraftKings)

Dru Brown will pay his former team a visit less than a month after being traded when he starts at quarterback for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Sunday night at the Ottawa Redblacks.

The Blue Bombers (3-2) may have a quarterback controversy on their hands. Zach Collaros, 37, was off to a poor start to the season before sustaining a neck injury in Week 5.

Brown took all the snaps on July 10 in a 30-21 home win over the Toronto Argonauts, completing a stellar 25 of 31 passes for 339 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Collaros was ruled out for Winnipeg’s Week 7 matchup with Ottawa and Brown will make another start.

Brown gets his chance at revenge after he lost his starting job to Jake Maier in preseason and requested his release from the Redblacks.

“It probably was a little bit of a distraction, just how (Brown) went about it, but I thought he did his best to support Jake,” Ottawa coach and general manager Ryan Dinwiddie said in June. “He wanted to go someplace else, so we gave him that opportunity to do that.”

Now there’s a chance that could come back to bite the Redblacks (0-5), the last remaining winless team in the CFL.

Sunday’s matchup is between the two lowest-scoring offenses in the league, tied at 23.8 pointer per game. Each team has seven passing TDs this year; only the BC Lions are behind that with six.

Maier, Brown’s replacement as QB1 in Ottawa, tossed four interceptions in last week’s 40-17 drubbing at the hands of the Edmonton Elks.

“I knew (this potential storyline) was going to be coming weeks ago,” Dinwiddie told reporters this week. “I only worry about the guys in this building. Obviously, we wanted to keep Dru around, and it didn’t work out. … But we still believe in Jake. Obviously, the four interceptions are not what we wanted.”

Winnipeg coach Mike O’Shea didn’t want to feed the potential fuel, saying the revenge game angle was something “the media has to cover,” but one of his top receivers, Nic Demski, said “the whole team” is rooting for Brown to stick it to his old club.

“Everybody knows what the situation is,” Demski said. “It’s pro football but, at the end of the day, everybody has a personal relationship with Dru since he’s been here before. Everybody knows how hard he works and how much preparation he puts into this.”

–Field Level Media

TJ Rumfield went 4-for-5 with a two-run homer and four RBIs, as the Colorado Rockies beat the Cincinnati Reds 10-3 on Saturday in Denver.

Jake McCarthy and Mickey Moniak each had two hits and two RBIs for Colorado, which recorded 14 hits and snapped a three-game losing skid. Cole Carrigg added two hits with an RBI and three runs scored.

Tomoyuki Sugano (9-4) won his fifth straight decision, allowing three runs on six hits with no walks and three strikeouts over 6 1/3 innings.

Jose Trevino hit a pair of solo homers among his three hits for Cincinnati, which trailed 8-1 after three innings and lost for the third time in its last four games.

Colorado set the tone with two runs in the first inning against Rhett Lowder (3-7). McCarthy hit a leadoff double and scored on Carrigg’s one-out double before Rumfield delivered a run-scoring single.

The Rockies tacked on four more runs in the second inning. Brett Sullivan tripled to begin the rally and scored on McCarthy’s two-out single. After stealing second base, McCarthy scored on Moniak’s single to center. Rumfield and Willi Castro followed with back-to-back RBI singles.

The Reds got on the board on Trevino’s one-out solo homer in the third before Colorado scored two more runs in the bottom half of the inning.

With runners on the corners and one out, Julian Garcia replaced Lowder and allowed a run to score on McCarthy’s groundout. Another run scored when Moniak followed with an RBI single.

Lowder yielded eight runs on 11 hits over 2 1/3 innings. He issued zero walks with two strikeouts.

Trevino homered again with one out in the fifth inning before the Rockies extended their lead with two runs in the sixth. After Carrigg drew a two-out walk, Rumfield hit his 13th homer of the season to put Colorado ahead 10-2.

Cincinnati, which had won its last seven meetings against the Rockies at Coors Field, scored a run in the seventh after Juan Mejia replaced Sugano with a runner at second and one out.

With runners on the corners and two outs, Nathaniel Lowe lined a pinch-hit single into center field to score Noelvi Marte from third.

–Field Level Media