The World Cup starts tomorrow and the Knicks go for a 3-1 lead tonight so there’s plenty of high profile sporting events on tap.

But hey, it’s wall to wall baseball today so let’s try to get back in the black with some MLB picks.

Season Record 33-30-1, -0.23Units

Phillies at Blue Jays

Jesus Luzardo Under 17.5 Outs Recorded (+140 BetMGM)

Bets are supposed to be about the price, right? Well, that’s exactly my angle here as I’m a fan of Luzardo as a pitcher. Especially when he’s on his game as he’s often an ace and you wonder why he can’t do that every game. Well the fact is he can’t as he’ll toss a gem one outing and then another and then get lit up in the next one. It has produced an uneven season. He has an 18.9% K-BB% which ranks 22nd among 66 qualified pitchers but he has an ERA of 4.56 which ranks 56th. He’s gone 73 IP in his 13 starts, so that’s about 5.5 per outing

The Jays are a modestly subpar offense with a 96 wRC+ on the season, but they’re on the pesky side. They have the 2nd lowest K% in the league at 19.3% so there’s a lot of balls in play. And that does not bode particularly well for Luzardo. He’s a heavy groundball pitcher and at -6 If Fielding Runs saved the Phillies have one of their worst team defenses in MLB.

The Jays absolutely torched Luzardo in their meeting last year with 9 hits and 8 runs in just 2.1 IP. I doubt we see a repeat of that, but they may give him a tough time again today so let’s try the under on his outs prop with a nice plus money cushion.

Brewers at Athletics*

Under 14.5 Runs (-102 BetMGM)

Again, the asterisk is to remember the game will take place in Vegas. 14.5 is of course a monstrous total, but it’s not unjustified.

The Brewers alone got there on Monday and the A’s just missed as the Crew won 15-14 in extra innings. It was a little tamer last night as the A’s took the game 7-5. It’s a leap of faith here, but it’s still tough to get to 15 runs combined, even in this heat and altitude.

Part of it is thanks to the pitching matchup, which on paper looks very weak. In the Brewers case there’s some truth behind it as there’s not a lot in Brandon Sproat’s data that suggests he’s much better than his 6.17 ERA. But he is actually. His 12.1% BB% is awful, but he also has a 24.1% K%. His 4.45 SIERA is bad, but not 6+ ERA bad.

A’s starter Jack Perkins on the other hand is considerably better than his 6.19 ERA as he’s got a 20.8% K-BB% with elite contact suppression skills. His xERA is just 3.30. Now most of that came as a reliever as he’s in the process of converting to the rotation. But the metrics look encouraging so far as he’s gone 8.1 IP in his two extended outings and he’s got 13 K’s vs. just 2 BB’s. Let’s close our eyes and take the under here.

The Toronto Blue Jays are getting healthier.

Max Scherzer will be the second Blue Jays’ starting pitcher in a row to return from the injured list when he starts the series finale Wednesday night against the visiting Philadelphia Phillies.

Dylan Cease returned from the IL Tuesday night to strike out 11 over six innings in the Blue Jays’ 3-2 walk-off victory. Cease had not pitched since May 24 because of a strained hamstring.

Each team has won once in the three-game series.

Reliever Adam Macko was optioned to Triple-A Buffalo to clear roster space for Cease. There will be other roster moves with Scherzer coming back and catcher Alejandro Kirk likely to return from a fractured thumb on Friday.

Scherzer (1-3, 9.64 ERA) is scheduled to make his first start since April 24 after dealing with forearm and ankle issues. He is one strikeout away from becoming the 11th pitcher in major league history to reach 3,500 for his career.

The right-hander is 18-5 with a 2.58 ERA in 31 career starts against the Phillies but has not faced them since 2023.

The Phillies are slated to start left-hander Jesus Luzardo (4-4, 4.56 ERA) on Wednesday. His one career start against the Blue Jays was last season, and it did not go well. He was saddled with the loss after allowing eight runs on nine hits in 2 1/3 innings.

It is unclear how Toronto’s lineup will look against Luzardo.

In an attempt to get Vladimir Guerrero Jr. out of his rut, for instance, Blue Jays manager John Schneider had him bat leadoff for the second time in his career on Tuesday. He was 1-for-4 with an infield hit and is hitting .167 (5-for-30) with one RBI in June.

“We’re just trying to shake things up for him a little bit, and we’ll see how it goes,” Schneider said. “I’ve been talking to him about it for a while. I feel like I’ve been talking about him in the two-hole for five years. We were talking about this a couple of weeks ago and he said, ‘I’ll hit wherever.’ It was probably a three-minute conversation (Monday) night. It’s no secret. We go as Vlad goes. No one feels that more than him.”

“I’m sure (Schneider) is trying to get something going, give Schneider a different feel for Vlad,” said Phillies interim manager Don Mattingly, who was Toronto’s bench coach the previous three seasons. “I’m hoping it doesn’t really work — for a few days.”

Another struggling Blue Jays hitter, George Springer, was given Tuesday off, although he did get ready to pinch hit late in the game. He was not needed, however.

Tuesday was a tough game for the closers. Toronto’s Louis Varland allowed only his second earned run of the season in the top of the ninth inning on a walk and Bryson Stott’s double that gave the Phillies a 2-1 lead.

Philadelphia’s Jhoan Duran entered the bottom of the ninth having converted all 16 save attempts this season. But two hits and a wild pitch tied the game, and Brandon Valenzuela singled for his first career walk-off hit.

“You know it’s going to happen at some point,” Mattingly said.

Cease and Phillies starter Zack Wheeler each allowed one run in six innings.

“Cease was really good; I thought Zack was good,” Mattingly said. “Obviously, it was one of those games that’s just not going to be a bunch of runs going up.”

–Field Level Media

LAS VEGAS — Milwaukee Brewers rookie Brandon Sproat will have the challenge of keeping the ball in the park against the long-ball launching Athletics on Wednesday at the hitter-friendly home of the A’s Triple-A affiliate.

Sproat (1-4, 6.17 ERA), who has given up 11 homers in 54 innings this season, will be opposed by fellow right-hander Jack Perkins (2-3, 6.19) in the final game of a three-game series.

The A’s pounded out five homers in a 7-5 victory Tuesday night to even the series and snap the Brewers four-game winning streak. Tyler Soderstrom and Nick Kurtz each went deep for the third time in two games for the A’s, who have 12 homers in the series, matching a franchise record for most homers in a two-game span.

Jonah Heim and Zack Gelof each homered for the second time in the series Tuesday and Henry Bolte added his first career homer. The A’s are 15-6 when they hit more homers than their opponent.

The Brewers won a 15-14 slugfest in 12 innings in the series opener on Monday night. The A’s have learned the ball can jump in Las Vegas, where they are scheduled to move permanently when their new climate-controlled stadium opens in 2028.

T.J. Ginn allowed five runs in 5 2/3 innings to get the win. A’s starters are 4-12 over the past 23 games.

Gelof extended his hitting streak to 14 games, hitting .345 (19-for-55) over that span.

Perkins will be making his second consecutive start after 17 appearances out of the bullpen.

After going 2-0 with 2.70 ERA in eight relief appearances in April, he was 0-2 with 7.98 ERA in nine relief outings in May, allowing 15 runs, 13 earned, in 14 2/3 innings.

He took the loss in his start Friday, allowing five runs on five hits in four innings in a 75-pitch outing in a 5-1 defeat at Houston. He gave up a three-run homer to Isaac Paredes in the first inning.

“One mistake really, I feel like actually hurt, but outside of that, I feel like I threw a lot of competitive pitches,” Perkins said afterward. “My whole goal today getting back into a starter’s mindset was to compete at a high level. I feel like I did that.”

Sproat is 1-3 with a 5.97 ERA over his past seven starts, allowing 21 earned runs on 33 hits in 31 2/3 innings. He struck out 34 over that span, but also walked 16.

Sproat did not get a decision in his most recent start, allowing three runs on seven hits in five innings when the Brewers rallied for 9-7 win at Colorado in 10 innings last Friday.

Brewers manager Pat Murphy has expressed frustration at times with Sproat’s inconsistency.

After a 9-2 loss to Houston in late May, Sproat’s third consecutive start of not getting out of the fifth inning, Murphy said, “We’re not going to tolerate too many duds like this, that’s for sure. If he’s not going to step up — we’re trying to win. We’re not rebuilding.”

“His stuff is really, really good,” Murphy continued. “He’s shown so many flashes of being really good, and that’s why it’s worth sticking with him. Because when he gets really good, that gives us yet another solid starter.”

The A’s series with the Brewers will be followed by another three games in Las Vegas against the Colorado Rockies.

— Jim Hoehn, Field Level Media