Crunch all the numbers you like.

But with the wild variability of international play, smart handicapping of international soccer events like the World Cup often defies the data.

The good news for bettors is that you can often find more value than you might in the more controlled pro club environment, where there are much larger samples and far fewer secrets.

With that in mind, let’s look at three futures wagers you should be making right now as we set to open up the 2026 World Cup on Thursday.

Confederation to win The World Cup

World Cup winners have historically correlated to World Cup host location.

European sides have won 10 of the 11 tournaments played on European soil. South American sides have won nine of the 11 tournaments played elsewhere, and seven of eight played in the Americas.

Further, all of this year’s South American entrants have very recent experience managing the travel and playing conditions in the United States from the 2024 Copa America that was hosted in many current World Cup venues.

Only two South American teams rank in the top 10 (Argentina, Brazil) in overall squad value, but trans-Atlantic economic disparities often drive down valuation of South American talent relative to Europe. Colombia, Uruguay and Ecuador all have considerable quality, enough that a deep run from any of the trio is not out of the question.

None of this is a guarantee that a South American side will win. But it’s almost certainly more likely than the implied probability 23.8% of a +320 wager.

Confederation to Win The World Cup Best Bet: Conmebol (+320, FanDuel)

Most Assists for Colombia

There are plenty of questions about the fitness of James Rodriguez, who barely saw the field in half a season with Minnesota United in MLS and last played in a World Cup in 2018.

But he has always been the best version of himself when playing for his national team. And that best version at age 34 is the guy providing the final ball rather than finishing it.

Rodriguez led all of Conmebol in World Cup Qualifying with seven assists and was also the top assist man at the 2024 Copa America. And his first two opponents should provide plenty of opportunity for creating chances from corner kicks and free kicks, as World Cup debutants Uzbekistan and last-gasp qualifiers DR Congo are likely to be quite cagey and conservative.

That Rodriguze is not favored over Luis Diaz in this market is a blatant oversight. Take advantage by backing him to lead his team in goals assisted at +450 odds and an implied 22.2% probability.

Most Assists for Colombia Best Bet: James Rodriguez (+450, Caesars)

Ivory Coast Phase of Elimination

The Elephants have plenty of talent playing, but their tournament itinerary feels like a recipe for disaster.

They open against Ecuador, a nation overshadowed on their continent by the likes of Argentina and Brazil, but one that has now gone unbeaten in 19 matches.

If they lose that encounter — and they’ll be slight underdogs — they enter a second match against Germany as a must-draw, a bad place to be against a Julian Nagelsmann-managed squad that excels on punishing mistakes of desperate opponents.

So there’s a very real chance the Elephants could enter the final matchday without points, knowing they only have a faint chance to advance as a third-place side. And they’d face a Curacao side that has more talent than you might think under manager Dick Advocaat, and one that might smell a chance of their first-ever World Cup win.

Maybe it’s not the most likely scenario. But it’s plausible, and one worth betting on at +450 odds and an implied 22.2% probability.

Ivory Coast Phase of Elimination: Group stage (+450, Fanatics)

Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby shocked everyone this week by winning his injunction, and getting a temporary restraining order against the NCAA allowing him to play for Texas Tech in 2026.

It’s hard to say anything is surprising in college football anymore, but this decision was shocking. Ignoring the morality of betting on your own football team, it also seems illegal to have other people place bets on your behalf, which Sorsby admitted to doing. Sorsby and Texas Tech have continued to claim that the issue at hand was a mental health crisis, but I couldn’t imagine the university going through all this trouble if he was a back up kicker.

The NCAA has lost control of college sports. If you don’t like their decision, you take your case to a favorable judge, and you’re allowed to do whatever you want. I am completely against Sorsby ever getting a second chance like most fans of college football, and I wish there was something the NCAA could do to prevent him from playing in 2026 and beyond.

We’ve seen the governing board of the NCAA doesn’t have a backbone, but other universities are fighting against this injustice.

Per Pete Thamel, the Big Ten will be meeting to discuss whether they will continue to schedule regular season games against Texas Tech. Nebraska’s AD, Troy Dannen, and many other AD’s have announced they will no longer be scheduling games against Tech as well.

Twelve Chicago White Sox players have made their major league debuts this season.

On Wednesday night, the club will look to build on the momentum created by its latest new arrival and take a series from the team with the best record in baseball.

Host Chicago rallied for a 6-5, 10-inning victory against the Atlanta Braves in Tuesday’s opener of a three-game series as right fielder Braden Montgomery punctuated his first major league game with a walk-off, two-run homer.

Montgomery went 2-for-5 with three RBIs, saving his best heroics for last as the White Sox secured their fifth walk-off victory this season and moved a half-game behind the first-place Cleveland Guardians in the American League Central.

“Just how we drew it up,” Montgomery said. “That was … I still don’t know what to say. That was unreal.”

Fellow rookie Jacob Gonzalez added two hits and an RBI for the White Sox, and Miguel Vargas hit his 16th home run as Chicago fought back from an early 4-0 deficit.

While Atlanta first baseman Matt Olson delivered his 18th and 19th home runs of the season, and Michael Harris II and Ozzie Albies added three hits apiece, the Braves endured a scare when right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. left in the fourth inning with left hamstring tightness after attempting to run out a grounder.

Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said Acuna will undergo an MRI on Wednesday and is day-to-day. Weiss said the injury “doesn’t seem as bad” as the left hamstring strain that put Acuna on the injured list from May 3-18.

“This one more recently, I don’t feel any pain,” Acuna said. “I just feel a little bit tight, so let’s see what happens with the MRI (Wednesday).”

Left-hander Chris Sale will start for Atlanta on Wednesday. Sale (8-4, 2.23 ERA) is coming off a 7-2 home loss to the Toronto Blue Jays last Thursday, when he allowed three runs and a season-high 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings.

“You’ve got to chalk it up to just being one of those days, really,” said Sale, who walked two, struck out six and hit a batter. “I just felt like anything that got put in play was a hit. My command was in and out at times. My stuff was pretty good, but it just seemed like they always found holes.”

A first-round draft pick of the White Sox in 2010, Sale went 74-50 with a 3.00 ERA in seven seasons for Chicago, making 148 starts among his 228 appearances. He is 2-2 with a 2.92 ERA in six starts against his former team, with 57 strikeouts in 37 innings.

Right-hander Davis Martin (8-2, 2.61 ERA) is slated to start for the White Sox. Initially set to pitch on Tuesday, he was given an extra day of rest after getting hit hard in a 6-4 loss at Minnesota on June 2.

Martin allowed six runs and 10 hits in 4 2/3 innings, with three walks and two strikeouts.

“We have these off days, and you have the ability to get things lined up to maximize the recovery for guys,” White Sox manager Will Venable said. “And Davis, as much as he’s been pitching, we thought the opportunity to give him extra time, make sure that he is recovered well and at his best, was really important.”

Martin has not faced Atlanta in his career.

–Field Level Media