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San Francisco’s housing market has lost its mind

San Francisco real estate has never been very accessible. But the record sales happening right now in the city’s high-end market are testing the upper limits of what even this famously unaffordable city thought was possible.

Consider a six-bedroom, 5,700-square-foot home in Cow Hollow, one of San Francisco’s most coveted neighborhoods. It was listed two weeks ago at $7.95 million, so, not cheap. It just sold for $15 million. The sellers, who bought the property for $7.8 million in the summer of 2020 as the pandemic was pushing residents out of cities, nearly doubled their money in under six years.

San Francisco real estate agent Rohin Dhar flagged the sale on X, where it drew the kind of reactions you’d expect from people who thought they’d seen everything this market had to offer.

Then there’s a 4,100-square-foot home in Presidio Heights, one of the city’s most exclusive enclaves, that was listed in late April for $4.4 million and sold a week later for $8.2 million, nearly double the asking price. Venture capitalist Nichole Wischoff, who toured the property before it sold, wasn’t impressed with what the money was buying.

“Mediocre house, good location,” she wrote on X, noting that the view from the patio was of a neighboring home that appeared to have burned down. “Someone just bought this for $8.2M,” she wrote. “If you like to see cash lit on fire, come tour real estate in SF.”

It isn’t only the ultra-high end that’s seeing action. A 2,300-square-foot home in Bernal Heights sold this week for $4 million — a million dollars over asking — just two years after the same owners tried and failed to sell it for $2.95 million. That sale represents a different but equally telling story: The frenzy isn’t limited to the rarefied tier of eight-figure homes. Across a wide swath of the market, buyers are bidding aggressively, with homes routinely selling for $1 million over asking.

The numbers back up the anecdotes. New data from Redfin shows luxury home sales in San Francisco jumped 22% year-over-year in March, with homes going under contract in a median of just 12 days — down from 28 days a year earlier. Nearly two-thirds of luxury properties went under contract within two weeks. By contrast, non-luxury sales rose less than 4%, with prices essentially flat. The high end is essentially operating in a totally different universe.

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The invisible force behind all of this is no mystery to anyone paying attention to the city’s tech economy. San Francisco is home to some of the most valuable private companies in the world, and their employees have been quietly accumulating — and, increasingly, cashing out — fortunes.

OpenAI and Anthropic, two of the most valuable AI companies ever created, have allowed employees to sell portions of their shares in secondary market transactions in recent years, putting serious money into the hands of people who, in many cases, already live here and want to upgrade. That liquidity is flowing directly into the housing market, and the market is responding accordingly.

The truly astonishing part may still be ahead. SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, and a cluster of other tech giants have yet to go public. When they do — and the conventional wisdom holds that some of them will sooner than later — the wealth unlocked could make the current moment look quaint in comparison. Thousands of employees holding equity in companies valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars will become even more liquid almost overnight.

What that means for a housing market already producing $15 million sales within just a week of being listed is, candidly, difficult to fathom at this moment. San Francisco has spent decades as the punchline of conversations about housing affordability. It’ll be strange, to say the least, if $15 million soon looks like an opening bid.

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The fax machine is the bottleneck in US healthcare, and VCs are starting to notice

Like many AI companies automating work that humans currently do, Basata will eventually face a harder question about where the line is between augmenting workers and displacing them. For now, the founders say the administrative staff they work with aren’t worried about that; they’re more worried about drowning.
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US defense contractor who sold hacking tools to Russian broker ordered to pay $10M to former employers

Peter Williams, a veteran cybersecurity executive who was the head of the hacking and surveillance tech division of U.S. defense contractor L3Harris, has been ordered to pay $10 million to his former employer. Williams was the central figure in one of the worst leaks of advanced hacking tools in the history of the United States and its closest allies.

On Wednesday, a judge ordered Williams to pay that amount in restitution on top of the $1.3 million he had already been ordered to pay to L3Harris. Williams, a 39-year-old Australian citizen who previously worked in one of Australia’s intelligence agencies, was until last year the general manager of Trenchant. Born out of the acquisition of two sister startups, Trenchant is L3Harris’ division that develops advanced spyware and hacking tools and sells them to the U.S. government and its allies in the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, a coalition of five English-speaking nations that share classified intelligence with one another. In addition to the U.S., the alliance includes Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom.

Veteran cybersecurity reporter Kim Zetter first reported the new order to pay restitution in her newsletter. 

Williams’ lawyers did not respond to a request for comment.

Last year, Williams was arrested and accused of stealing seven unspecified trade secrets — almost certainly cyber exploits, which is code that hijacks software vulnerabilities, and surveillance technology — from Trenchant and then selling them to Operation Zero. The Russian firm acts as a broker, buying and selling hacking tools, and it says it works exclusively with the Russian government and local companies.

Williams pleaded guilty and was sentenced to more than seven years in prison. 

Williams made $1.3 million selling the trade secrets, which he used to buy luxury watches, a house near Washington, D.C., and family vacations. Trenchant told prosecutors that it suffered losses of up to $35 million due to Williams’ theft. 

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U.S. prosecutors said Williams “betrayed” the United States and its allies by giving Operation Zero, which the U.S. government calls “one of the world’s most nefarious exploit brokers,” tools that could have been used to hack “millions of computers and devices around the world.” 

As TechCrunch previously reported, Williams took advantage of his privileged “full access” to Trenchant’s internal network to siphon the tools out of the company’s offices. After Williams sold the hacking tools to Operation Zero, some of them ended up being used by Russian government spies in Ukraine, and later Chinese cybercriminals, according to former L3Harris employees who recognized the stolen code in cybersecurity research that Google published after investigating the cyberattacks in which those tools were deployed.

Williams also tried to frame one of his employees for the theft.

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Poland says hackers breached water treatment plants, and the US is facing the same threat

Poland’s intelligence service said it detected attacks on five water treatment plants where hackers could have taken control of the industrial equipment inside, including, in the worst case, tampering with the safety of the water supply.

The story is relevant beyond Poland’s borders: U.S. water infrastructure has faced similar threats in recent years. In 2021, a hacker briefly gained access to a water treatment plant in Oldsmar, Florida and attempted to increase the level of sodium hydroxide — a caustic chemical — to dangerous levels. The FBI and the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency have since warned that water utilities remain a soft target for foreign hackers.

On Friday, Poland’s Internal Security Agency, the country’s top intelligence agency, published a report covering the last two years of the agency’s operations and threats the country faced. The report said Polish intelligence thwarted multiple acts of sabotage from Russian government spies and hackers, who targeted military facilities, critical infrastructure (essential systems such as power grids, water supplies, and transportation networks), as well as civilian targets. These attacks, according to the report, may have resulted in fatalities.  

“The most serious challenge remains the sabotage activity against Poland, inspired and organized by Russian intelligence services. This threat was (and is) real and immediate. It requires full mobilization,” read the report.

The report did not specify whether the hackers behind the attacks on the water treatment facilities were Russian government spies. But Poland has recently been the target of several attempts by Russian government hackers to attack its infrastructure, including a failed attempt to bring down the country’s energy grid. That breach was later attributed to poor security controls at the targeted facilities.

Poland’s experience is part of a growing global pattern of attacks on water and energy infrastructure. As recently as last month, a joint advisory from the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the FBI, the NSA, and several other federal agencies warned that Iranian-backed hackers are actively targeting programmable logic controllers — the industrial computers that run water and energy facilities — at U.S. utilities. The same Iranian hacking group, CyberAv3ngers, previously broke into digital control panels at multiple U.S. water treatment plants in Pennsylvania in 2023, in attacks that federal agencies linked to escalating hostilities in the Middle East.

In other words, the attacks against Poland are not unique, they follow a strategy that the Russian government is applying both in war zones such as Ukraine, as well as against Western countries that it sees as longstanding enemies. The plan, according to Polish intelligence, is to destabilize and weaken the West, and cyberattacks and cyberespionage are just tools in a larger toolkit for Putin’s regime.

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