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NBA Best Bets Today: Conference Semifinals Game 1 Predictions

Jan 4, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (45) drives to the basket against Detroit Pistons forward Isaiah Stewart (28) during the second half at Rocket Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn ImagesJan 4, 2026; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (45) drives to the basket against Detroit Pistons forward Isaiah Stewart (28) during the second half at Rocket Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

The first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs gave the Conference Semifinals a high bar to live up to. But with the matchups on deck tonight, fans are in for some more great NBA Postseason action. Bot No. 1 seeds will see action tonight and are favored to win, but that doesn’t mean they will be one of our NBA best bets.

They could be, of course. No. 1 seeds should be favored at this stage of the postseason. But as for the best bets for each game….let’s check out each contest and see what we can figure out.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons

Both teams had to go the distance to win their first-round series, so neither has a rest advantage in this game. However, based on how each team’s first-round series played out, Detroit may have a slight advantage.

The Pistons had to do more than just win Game 7 to earn their spot in the conference semis. They had to rally from a 3-1 series deficit, including overcoming a massive second-half deficit, to win Game 6 and play an all-around great game to win Game 7. Heading into this series, they are playing well on both ends of the court.

Cleveland can’t make that claim. Their offense wasn’t nearly as explosive, scoring just under 112 points per game after averaging 119.5 in the regular season. For a team with a middle-of-the-road defense, that’s not good.

My Pick: Pistons -3.5 at -104 (FanDuel)

It got pretty ugly for the Pistons in the first round, but Detroit started resembling a team that won 60 games in the regular season to earn the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference in the back half of the first round. If that team shows up in Game 1 vs. the Cavs, Detroit will win this game by more than 3.5 points.

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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Lakers deserve all the credit in the world for winning a first-round series against the Houston Rockets without two of their best players for most of the series. While they did get Austin Reaves back for the last couple, he didn’t have a significant impact.

But now they are going up against the defending champs, a team that beat them 4-0 during the regular season, scoring 119+ points per game and holding them to under 100 points in three of those games. Just to make things more challenging, the Oklahoma City Thunder have a rest advantage, and the Lakers are still down Luka Dončić.

Do the Lakers have a chance? With a healthy Luka and four Luka clones? Maybe. A better question would be whether the Thunder can cover such a massive spread (-15.5 points at -110, DraftKings).

My Pick: Lakers First Half Total, Under 49.5 at -110 (FanDuel)

That is a massive spread that has already climbed to 16 points at some sportsbooks. Now, it is one they would have covered in three of four regular-season games. But what if “Playoff” LeBron shows up and he throws up a triple-double? If that’s what you want to count on…

OKC held the Lakers to under 49.5 points in the first half of two of the four regular-season games between them. Houston, once it started playing defense in the final three games of the series, held the Lakers to under 49.5 points in the first half of those games.

OKC’s defense is much better than Houston’s and more consistent.

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Mariners hit 2 home runs, overcome Braves' 4 homers

MLB: Atlanta Braves at Seattle MarinersMay 4, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners catcher Mitch Garver (18), left, and starting pitcher Logan Gilbert (36) meet at the mound during the sixth inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images

Luke Raley and J.P. Crawford homered in a five-run sixth inning as the Seattle Mariners rallied to defeat the visiting Atlanta Braves 5-4 on Monday in the opener of a three-game interleague series.

The Mariners snapped a three-game skid and halted Atlanta’s three-game winning streak on a night all nine runs scored via the long ball. The major-league-leading Braves lost for just the fourth time in the past 19 games.

Mariners starter Logan Gilbert (2-3) got the victory despite allowing four solo home runs. The right-hander gave up four runs on six hits over six innings, with two walks and four strikeouts.

Seattle relievers Jose A. Ferrer and Eduard Bazardo combined for two scoreless innings, and closer Andres Munoz worked the ninth for his seventh save of the season.

Braves reliever Tyler Kinley (3-2) was charged with two runs in his lone inning.

Matt Olson hit his 300th career homer for the Braves, and teammates Drake Baldwin, Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley also went deep.

Baldwin led off the game with a homer to center field.

It remained 1-0 until the sixth, when Albies and Olson began the inning with homers to center. An out later, Riley went deep to left-center for a 4-0 advantage.

Braves rookie right-hander JR Ritchie, who grew up on nearby Bainbridge Island, cruised through the first five innings before walking the first two batters he faced in the sixth. Raley hit a three-run shot to right-center, pulling the Mariners within 4-3 and ending Ritchie’s night.

Kinley issued a one-out walk to Mitch Garver, and with two outs, Crawford homered to right to put Seattle ahead.

Ritchie, making his third major league start, allowed three runs on four hits in five-plus innings. He walked six and struck out two.

Braves catcher Sean Murphy, making his season debut after recovering from hip surgery performed last September, challenged two ball-strike calls in the first inning and lost both, exhausting his team’s limit. He went 0-for-3 at the plate.

Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh sat out his third consecutive game due to discomfort in his right side.

–Field Level Media

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In return of Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves stun Spurs in Game 1

NBA: Playoffs-Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio SpursMay 4, 2026; San Antonio, Texas, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Victor Wembanyama (1) shoots over Minnesota Timberwolves center Naz Reid (11) in the first half during game one of the second round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Frost Bank Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-Imagn Images

Julius Randle scored 21 points and Anthony Edwards came off the bench to hit for 18 points as the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves outlasted the San Antonio Spurs 104-102 on Monday in Game 1 of the teams’ Western Conference semifinal series.

The Timberwolves will take a 1-0 lead into Game 2, which will be contested on Wednesday in the Alamo City. Games 3 and 4 will be in Minneapolis on Friday and Sunday, respectively.

Minnesota was bolstered by the return of Edwards, who suffered a bone bruise in his left knee on April 25 that was supposed to keep him out “multiple weeks.”

San Antonio led by three points after three quarters. Edwards scored 11 of the Timberwolves’ first 19 points of the fourth period before Minnesota reeled off a 7-0 run capped by a 3-pointer by Mike Conley with 4:42 left to build a 95-86 advantage.

Victor Wembanyama’s dunk with 44 seconds left trimmed the margin to four and Dylan Harper’s steal and layup with 31 seconds remaining brought San Antonio within a bucket. After a miss by Randle, the Spurs opted not to call a time out and got the ball to Julian Champagnie, who’s 3-pointer at the buzzer hit the front of the rim and away.

Jaden McDaniels and Terrence Shannon Jr. added 16 points each for Minnesota. Naz Reid and Conley had 12 points apiece with Randle and Rudy Gobert grabbing 10 rebounds each.

Harper led the Spurs with 18 points while Stephon Castle and Champagnie scored 17 each. Devin Vassell had 14 points and Wembanyama recorded an 11-point, 15-rebound, 12 blocked shots triple-double despite going 0-for-8 from beyond the arc. Keldon Johnson also had 11 points for San Antonio.

Randle ran the floor for a dunk over Wembanyama at the buzzer to allow the Timberwolves to earn a 24-22 advantage after 12 minutes of play.

The teams traded runs over the first half of the second quarter as San Antonio built a 35-29 lead after a pair of free throws by Luke Kornet at the 6:38 mark. The Timberwolves swung back with a 7-0 surge capped by a layup by Reid that netted them a 36-35 advantage, and the rest of the half went back and forth before ending tied at 45-all.

Harper led all scorers with 11 points before halftime while Castle added 10 for the Spurs. Edwards, Reid and Randle had seven points each to pace Minnesota in the first half.

–Field Level Media

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Pregame transactions help spark Giants to skid-ending win

Baseball: Spring Training-Team USA at San Francisco GiantsMar 3, 2026; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; San Francisco Giants first baseman Bryce Eldridge against Team USA during a spring training game at Scottsdale Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

The San Francisco Giants summoned help from the minors in their return home on Monday following a 0-6 road trip, and one of the call-ups delivered a skid-ending victory.

Trevor McDonald, making his first major league appearance of the season, pitched seven innings of one-run ball as San Francisco beat the San Diego Padres 3-2. The right-hander permitted two hits and no walks while striking out eight.

Two other call-ups were in the starting lineup, too. Top prospect Bryce Eldridge served as the designated hitter and went 0-for-2 with a walk, while catcher Jesus Rodriguez finished 0-for-3 in his big-league debut.

To clear spots on the roster, the Giants optioned outfielder Will Brennan to Sacramento, designated outfielder Jerar Encarnacion for assignment and placed left-hander Erik Miller on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to Friday, due to a lower back strain.

The Giants scored only nine runs on their trek to face the Philadelphia Phillies and Tampa Bay Rays. Five of those runs came in an extra-inning loss, and the Giants were shut out twice.

San Francisco is the worst team in the majors in runs (106), home runs (19), RBIs (101), bases on balls (69) and on-base percentage (.287) under first-year manager Tony Vitello.

The Giants will hope Eldridge and Rodriguez can help to unlock the offense.

The 6-foot-7, 250-pound Eldridge is just 21 and was the Giants’ first-round draft pick in 2023.

In 30 games this season at Triple-A Sacramento, the first baseman is batting .333 with a .963 OPS. He has six doubles, five home runs, 22 RBIs and 25 runs. He also has walked 20 times.

The biggest knock on Eldridge is his penchant for striking out — 41 times in 114 at-bats this season — but the Giants apparently feel they are out of time to work on that at the Triple-A level.

The Giants called him up briefly last season, and he batted .107 with four RBIs and 13 strikeouts in 10 games.

MLB Pipeline ranks Eldridge as the No. 20 prospect in baseball and No. 1 in the San Francisco system. It has Rodriguez ranked No. 18 among Giants prospects.

In 24 games at Sacramento, Rodriguez is hitting .330 with two homers and 14 RBIs. The 24-year-old has played in 431 games in the minors since 2019 and has a career average of .311 with 34 homers and 240 RBIs.

McDonald, 25, had brief stints with the Giants the past two years, going a combined 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA in four games (two starts). This year for Sacramento, he was 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA in five appearances (four starts).

Brennan, 28, went 0-for-9 in five games for San Francisco. He played for the Cleveland Guardians each of the previous four seasons.

Encarnacion, 28, was hitless in his past 11 at-bats, leaving him with a .176 average and no RBIs in 17 games this season. He played for the Giants in 2024 and 2025 after starting his major league career with the Miami Marlins in 2022.

Miller, 28, has no decisions, two saves and a 3.18 ERA in 12 appearances this season, his third year with the Giants.

–Field Level Media

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