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MLB Best Bets: Friday Picks for Cardinals-Cubs and Red Sox-Angels

Jun 30, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson (7) hits a two-run home run against the San Diego Padres during the fifth inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn ImagesJun 30, 2026; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson (7) hits a two-run home run against the San Diego Padres during the fifth inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images

Happy 250th to all! We’ve got a packed weekend of baseball on tap, let’s celebrate the holiday with some winning MLB picks.

Season Record 40-40-2, -2.68 Units

Cardinals at Cubs

Cards F5 (+102 FanDuel)

We get a nice Rivalry Series here with the added twist that these teams are right in the middle of the NL Wild Card chase. That’s kind of surprising as far as the Cardinals are concerned as they sold off all sorts of pieces in the offseason as they looked to open up playing time for their younger players. Well its worked way better than they could have imagined. Jordan Walker has finally lived up to his prospect hype, and then some as he’s slashing 288/.342/.509 with 18 homers and 59 RBI’s in a shade over half a season. Meanwhile JJ Wetherholt is the current NL ROY favorite as he mans 2B and bats leadoff every day and he’s popped 12 homers with 9 steals and a .259 average. He’s got crazy good control of the strike zone for a rookie with a 10.35 BB% vs, a 15.9% K%.

I mostly love the Cards in this spot thanks to the pitching matchup. St Louis starts Andre Pallante, who’s quietly given them a very solid season. He has a 3.83 ERA and 1.23 WHIP while not missing a start and getting decently deep into games. He’s gone at least 6 IP in his last 4 starts and 8 of his last 11. He doesn’t get the whiffs you’d like as he has just an 18.7% K%, but he does limit contact well. His EV against is just 87 and it’s mostly on the ground with a 6.8 LA. That should prove helpful in hot and possibly windy Wrigley.

The Cubs counter with David Peterson, just imported from the reeling Mets. He pitched well in his first start with Chicago (5.2 IP, 2 ER) but it came with only 2 K’s. It’s been an overall forgettable year though with a 5.86 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. Like Palencia, he doesn’t strike out many (19.2%) and keeps in on the ground (7.7 LA). Unlike Pallante, its 90 EV contact. He’ll be better with the Cubs thanks their infield defense, but its a really tough formula for success. Give me the Cards here.

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Red Sox at Angels

Under 8 (-115 bet365)

It’s two pretty weak teams here but we have a nice matchup of lefties at least. Jake Bennett starts for the Red Sox and he has a 3.27 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 6 starts. He’s really been lethal in his last 2 outings, limiting the Rockies (at Coors) and the Yankees to just 1 ER total over 12.1 IP. The Angels start Reid Detmers and he’s a rare bright spot in another dismal season in Anaheim with a 3.88 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 27.8% K%. His xERA of 3.01 suggests he’s been even better than that. The Red Sox have played a bit better recently, but it’s mostly thanks to the their pitching as they still have a lousy lineup. Let’s bank on the arms here.

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Naomi Osaka upsets No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka to reach quarters at Wimbledon

Jul 5, 2026; London, United Kingdom; Naomi Osaka (JPN) hits a forehand against Aryna Sabalenka (not pictured) on day seven of The Championships Wimbledon 2026 at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club.Jul 5, 2026; London, United Kingdom; Naomi Osaka (JPN) hits a forehand against Aryna Sabalenka (not pictured) on day seven of The Championships Wimbledon 2026 at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club.

Naomi Osaka had lost three times to Aryna Sabalenka this year but finally delivered a breakthrough victory at a really good time.

Osaka, seeded 14th, served eight aces on Sunday while recording a solid 6-2, 7-6 (2) victory over World No. 1 Sabalenka at the All England Club in London to reach the Wimbledon quarterfinals for the first time.

But Osaka avenged those three setbacks in style to send the top-seeded Sabalenka home and further open a draw in which defending champion and No. 3 seed Iga Swiatek of Poland and No. 2 Elena Rybakina of Kazakhstan have also been eliminated.

It also marked the first time Osaka won a match on Wimbledon’s famed Centre Court.

“It’s been a long time since I’ve had so much fun on the court,” Osaka said afterward. “And to do it here, it really means a lot.”

The victory was Osaka’s first over a No. 1 player since beating Ash Barty in Beijing in 2019.

Osaka clearly found motivation in the three recent losses to Sabalenka.

Sabalenka won in straight sets in the round of 16 on the hard court at Indian Wells and also was victorious twice on clay. She prevailed in three sets in the round of 16 at Madrid and in two sets in the round of 16 at the French Open.

“Going into this match, I lost to her three times in a row, so that really sucked,” Osaka said. “I wanted to turn it over, and I’m really glad I had the opportunity to do that.”

Sabalenka nearly forced a third set before Osaka won a game to force a tiebreak, which she dominated to end the match.

“Level-wise today I wasn’t world No. 1. Yesterday I was world No. 1,” Sabalenka said. “I feel like … I don’t even want to think about ranking at this point. I just want to go get completely drunk, forget about tennis, and try to get in better shape.”

Osaka will next face 10th-seeded Karolina Muchova, who recorded a 7-5, 5-7, 6-3 win over fellow Czech and 2024 Wimbledon champ Barbora Krejcikova. Muchova had 50 winners, including nine aces.

Also, fourth-seeded Jessica Pegula overcame a slow start to record a 4-6, 6-3, 6-1 win over Iva Jovic to advance to the quarterfinals.

Pegula, 32, rebounded after dropping a set for the first time this tournament to dispatch the 16th-seeded Jovic and improve to 8-0 against American women this year. Pegula is the highest-seeded woman left in the tournament.

Reaching the quarterfinal for the second time in four years, Pegula will take on the winner of 11th-seeded Belinda Bencic of Switzerland and seventh-seeded Coco Gauff.

Trailing 4-5 in the first set, Jovic won four straight points before ultimately serving out the set before Pegula stormed back.

Pegula benefited from precise groundstrokes and limiting her miscues to change the momentum of the match.

–Field Level Media

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Isaac del Toro wins Stage 2 at Tour de France debut

UAE Team Emirates XRG's Tadej Pogacar in action during Stage 12 - Cycling - Tour de France - Stage 12 - Auch to Hautacam - Hautacam, France - July 17, 2025UAE Team Emirates XRG’s Tadej Pogacar in action during Stage 12 – Cycling – Tour de France – Stage 12 – Auch to Hautacam – Hautacam, France – July 17, 2025

Mexican cyclist Isaac del Toro on Sunday took home the second stage of the Tour de France in Barcelona, Spain.

Taking the lead in the young rider classification, del Toro became just the second Mexican rider to ever win a stage at the prestigious event, joining fellow countryman Raul Alcala, who took individual stages in 1989 and 1990.

And he did it during his first run competing at the event.

“It means really everything,” del Toro said. “I cannot believe I just did it. It’s just insane. You cannot believe how it feels now for me, especially for the country.”

del Toro raced alongside UAE Emirates-XRG teammate Tadej Pogacar up the final hill for a dominant 1-2 finish.

A winner of the 2023 Tour de l’Avenir and runner-up at the 2025 Giro d’Italia, del Toro had Pogacar’s blessing in taking the stage.

Pogacar, a Slovenian and four-time winner at the Tour (2020, 2021, 2024 and 2025), is in second place for the race itself, six seconds behind leader Jonas Vingegaard (Team Visma, Denmark), who took Stage 1.

A two-time winner (2022, 2023), Vingegaard maintained the yellow jersey without losing time to Pogacar. The three recorded identical times of 3 hours, 40 minutes, 1 second.

A cluster of four riders actually came through the finish together Sunday, as del Toro, Pogacar and Vingegaard were joined by Red Bull’s Remco Evenepoel of Belgium.

That result (technically third) helped Evenepoel stay within 15 seconds of the lead in third place. And despite a mechanical breakdown with 60 kilometers left, del Toro is in fourth after his stage victory.

–Field Level Media

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Wildfires disrupt Tour’s Stage 3; fans told to stay home

A firefighter works to battle wildfire near the A9 motorway near Beziers, France, July 3, 2026.A firefighter works to battle wildfire near the A9 motorway near Beziers, France, July 3, 2026.

Wildfires in the south of France are spurring some changes for the third stage of the Tour de France, organizers confirmed on Sunday.

The route, set to conclude within 60 kilometers of some of the worst of the fires in Les Angles, is not expected to shift.

Instead, officials have directed fans and unessential personnel to stay away from the final 40 kilometers of the journey.

“An exceptional fire calls for exceptional measures for the Tour,” race director Christian Prudhomme said. “We invite the public not to come to the edge of the race or to the finish site.”

Europe has been dealing with extreme heat and wildfires for weeks now. The current blaze affecting race procedure is being contained within the Pyrenees-Orientales, where aircraft have been deployed to battle the blaze.

A key stretch of the mountain pass providing access to the race will be closed.

“We obviously think first of all of the populations who are affected by the fire, of all those who have to move, and then we also think about the people who would be here to host the Tour.”

Jonas Vingegaard of Denmark leads the Tour de France through the first two stages.

–Field Level Media

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