Why LeBron James Is Unlikely To Pull off Another Upset Against Thunder

LeBron James has found a way to turn back the clock one more time, pulling off a massive upset for the Lakers in the first round over the Rockets. Not to take anything away from that achievement, but the Rockets looked like an exceedingly flawed team through most of the second half this year. Most importantly, when Kevin Durant was absent, their offense was exceedingly stagnant.

It doesn’t take a genius to see that life will be exceedingly harder for the Lakers against OKC. Luka Doncic is likely out for this series, and if not longer if Los Angeles were to advance, but they will be missing his offensive production far more severely in round two.

The Lakers have a 7% chance of advancing, according to prediction markets, and are +1400 to reach the Western Conference Finals. They are also 15.5-point underdogs in the series opener in Oklahoma City.

I gave the Lakers as an upset pick in round one, but I can’t see how they pull it off this time around. What are some things they could do in this series to continue their playoff success?

Los Angeles is one of the slower teams in the NBA, but they’ve become even slower in the playoffs. Across any sport, if teams can limit the number of possessions that occur in a game, the odds of them pulling off an upset increase drastically.

They were solid offensively when they settled into their half-court sets, but led all teams in turnovers per game in the first round. Oklahoma City was on the other end of the spectrum, but that will have to change for the Lakers against a far more cohesive Thunder core.

Austin Reaves was quiet in the two games he played in the first round and was only 2/12 from three. He has to play above his weight class and knock down threes at a rate that’s higher than his season average.

Furthermore, it sucks that we need to have this conversation in his age 41 season, but the Lakers are going to need to be carried by LeBron. He was great in round one, but he’s going to need to turn the clocks back even further this time around. That’s seriously the only way I think the Lakers pull this off. I would be an idiot to fully write off LeBron after everything he’s done in 23 seasons, but even a vintage King James appearance might not be enough to beat a Thunder team that’s one of the best we’ve ever seen.

OKC is +115 to sweep, and that’s probably the only thing I’d bet in this series. LeBron’s done crazy things in his career, but this would be bigger than anything we’ve ever seen. Even with a healthy Luka Doncic, this would be a very tough draw for the Lakers.