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Why Duke and Michigan Are Dead Even Entering Selection Sunday

It has been more than a decade since there was such a small difference between college basketball’s best two teams as Selection Sunday beckons.

Look at the metrics. Look at the gambling futures. Look at the evidence on our TV screens. It’s nearly impossible to say whether the Duke Blue Devils or the Michigan Wolverines are the favorite to win it all.

If you go by predictive metrics like KenPom, Duke ranks as roughly a half-point favorite over Michigan. If you go by results-based metrics like Wins Above Bubble, Michigan is a smidge ahead of Duke. If you go by online sportsbooks like Caesars, Duke is listed at +325 to cut down the nets on April 6 in Indianapolis at +325 — but Michigan sits at +325, too.

If you prefer to go by something absurd like on-court results, Duke edged Michigan 68-63 in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 21 in a game where neither team led by more than eight.

In essence, if this year’s tournament turns into nothing more than Duke and Michigan on an inexorable collision course from opposite sides of the bracket (to be unveiled at 6 p.m. ET Sunday), then we’re destined for an amazing three weeks.

The only way it might be greater is if we get a replay of the last NCAA Tournament with its top two teams virtually indistinguishable — because that was the last time a wholly unexpected squad stormed to the NCAA title.

That was way back in 2014, when NCAA Tournament committee members were still such troglodytes when it came to metrics that Louisville entered the tournament ranked as KenPom’s No. 1 overall team — yet received a No. 4 seed.

When the dust settled in Arlington, Texas, 18th-ranked and No. 7 seeded Connecticut claimed the championship while eighth-seeded Kentucky also made the Final Four. Some would argue that’s way more fun than having only No. 1 seeds in the Final Four.

What else will happen on Selection Sunday?

What else can be learned from the 2014 NCAA Tournament that might be applicable as we try to predict what will happen on Selection Sunday? Well, that was the year Wichita State raced through the regular season and the Missouri Valley Conference tournament at 34-0 and was rewarded with a No. 1 seed.

Now, the Shockers played a significantly tougher schedule than the 2025-26 Miami (Ohio) RedHawks — Tennessee, Alabama (on the road), BYU, Saint Louis and Tulsa were among their non-conference conquests — and the MVC was tougher than the current-day MAC.

But for all those who believe the NCAA Tournament committee shouldn’t bow at the feet of an undefeated mid-major, Wichita State’s season ended in the second round when John Calipari’s Kentucky squad rallied for a 78-76 win.

Speaking of the Miami RedHawks, their perfect season went poof Thursday in the MAC quarterfinals against a Massachusetts squad that finished with a 17-16 record. After that flaccid finish, which followed multiple 2-point escapes, there will be howling no matter how the committee treats the 31-1 RedHawks.

Do they deserve the worst at-large seed, which is usually a 12? Does the committee force them into the First Four with an 11 seed, which would inadvertently punish their opponent because Miami’s Millett Hall is just 40.4 miles from University of Dayton Arena?

Or does the committee decide Miami doesn’t deserve a bid at all because it played such a putrid schedule? According to the NET rankings, the RedHawks played zero Quad 1 games and went 2-0 versus Quad 2 foes. Auburn, widely expected to fall short of the 68-team tournament field, went 4-13 versus Quad 1s and 3-2 vs. Quad 2s. Indiana, in a similar spot, went 3-10 versus Quad 1s and 3-4 against Quad 2s.

The prediction here? Miami (Ohio) receives a No. 10 seed — and faces seventh-seeded Miami (Fla.) in the first round.

Duke, Michigan, Arizona and Florida receive the No. 1 seeds. Iowa State, UConn, Houston and Michigan State get the No. 2 seeds. Santa Clara claims an at-large berth and none of the power-conference bubble teams get in.

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Knights dominate Blackhawks behind efforts from Pavel Dorofeyev, Adin Hill

NHL: Chicago Blackhawks at Vegas Golden KnightsMar 14, 2026; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Vegas Golden Knights right wing Pavel Dorofeyev (16) celebrates with right wing Mark Stone (61) after scoring a goal against the Chicago Blackhawks during the second period at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Pavel Dorofeyev scored two goals and had an assist, and Adin Hill made 21 saves for his first shutout of the season as the Vegas Golden Knights moved into first place in the Pacific Division with a 4-0 victory over the Chicago Blackhawks on Saturday night in Las Vegas.

It was the second straight game of two goals and three points for Dorofeyev. Mark Stone and Mitch Marner each had two assists, and Rasmus Andersson and Keegan Kolesar also scored goals for Vegas, which leapfrogged Anaheim, a 2-0 loser at Ottawa earlier Saturday, into the top spot in the Pacific Division.

It was the 12th career shutout for Hill as the Golden Knights improved to 10-2-1 all-time against Chicago at T-Mobile Arena.

Spencer Knight finished with 28 saves for the Blackhawks, who had a four-game road point streak (2-0-2) snapped.

Vegas scored three times on four shots in the span of 3:27 midway through the first period to take a 3-0 lead.

Dorofeyev started the scoring with a power-play goal at the 8:33 mark, roofing a one-timer from the middle of the right circle past Knight’s glove side.

Andersson made it 2-0 with his 12th goal, a career high. Noah Hanifin picked up the primary assist, zipping a pass from the left corner to Andersson alone in the right circle, where he snapped a wrist shot inside the right post.

Kolesar, stationed in front of the crease, followed 25 seconds later, deflecting Jeremy Lauzon’s shot from the left point over Knight’s left pad.

Vegas increased the lead to 4-0 midway through the second period on another power-play goal by Dorofeyev, who swept in a rebound of a Stone shot into a wide-open right side of the net for his 34th goal this season.

Chicago appeared to get on the board 37 seconds into the third period on a long slap shot by Artyom Levshunov from the right point. But Vegas successfully challenged that the score came after a missed stoppage on a hand pass from Ryan Greene to Connor Bedard.

–Field Level Media

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Bobby McMann collects 3 points in delayed debut, Kraken beat Canucks

NHL: Seattle Kraken at Vancouver CanucksMar 14, 2026; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Seattle Kraken defenseman Ryker Evans (41) stick checks Vancouver Canucks forward Drew O’Connor (18) in the first period at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Bob Frid-Imagn Images

Bobby McMann scored twice and had an assist in his debut for his new team as the Seattle Kraken snapped a four-game losing streak with a 5-2 victory against the host Vancouver Canucks on Saturday night.

Matty Beniers had a goal and two assists and Jordan Eberle added three assists with McMann on the No. 1 line.

Jared McCann and Jamie Oleksiak also scored and Brandon Montour had two assists for the Kraken, who remained a point behind San Jose in the chase for the Western Conference’s second and final wild-card playoff berth. Goaltender Philipp Grubauer made 32 saves.

Evander Kane and Marco Rossi scored for the league-worst Canucks, who dropped to 7-21-5 at home this season. Nikita Tolopilo stopped 28 of 33 shots.

McMann, acquired from Toronto at the March 6 trade deadline, had to sit out three straight games while awaiting approval of his visa paperwork.

McMann broke a 1-1 tie on the power play at 19:10 of the first period. His wrist shot from just below the left faceoff dot snuck between Tolopilo’s pads and trickled over the goal line.

McMann scored his 21st goal of the season, surpassing his career high set in 2024-25, on a 3-on-2 rush at 4:14 of the third. Beniers sent the puck to Eberle on the right wing and his cross-slot pass found McMann for a tip-in at the far post to make it 4-1.

The Kraken opened the scoring at 4:12 of the first as McCann snapped a 10-game goalless drought. Montour skated the puck down the right wing and attempted a shot from the corner. Tolopilo made the save, but the rebound kicked right back to Montour, who went behind the net and spotted McCann alone in the slot for a one-timer.

Kane tied the score at 11:42 of the period on a breakaway. Kane deked Grubauer and lifted a backhander into the roof of the net.

Oleksiak tallied the lone goal of the second period at 5:06, joining the rush and taking a pass from Beniers in the high slot before beating Tolopilo with a wrist shot high to the glove side.

Beniers scored at 9:58 of the third, beating Tolopilo from the low slot after taking Eberle’s pass from behind the net.

Rossi capped the scoring at 19:40 of the third on a rebound after Grubauer stopped a breakaway.

The Kraken flew into Vancouver on Saturday morning after a snowstorm prevented them from traveling the previous day.

–Field Level Media

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DeMar DeRozan, Kings continue recent surge with win over Clippers

NBA: Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles ClippersMar 14, 2026; Inglewood, California, USA; Sacramento Kings guard Russell Westbrook (18) attempts to steal the ball from LA Clippers forward Kawhi Leonard (2) during the second quarter at Intuit Dome. Mandatory Credit: Jonathan Hui-Imagn Images

DeMar DeRozan scored 27 points and Precious Achiuwa added 25 with 13 rebounds as the Sacramento Kings turned a brief stop on the road into a 118-109 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers on Saturday at Inglewood, Calif.

Maxime Raynaud scored 23 points and Russell Westbrook added 12 points, 12 rebounds and 10 assists against his former team as the Kings won for the third time in their past four games to continue emerging from their 2-20 downturn.

Sacramento’s front line of DeRozan, Achiuwa and Raynaud combined to go 32-of-40 (80%) from the floor. The Kings were playing on the road for the only time in a stretch of 10 games and are now 3-3 during the run.

Kawhi Leonard scored 31 points for the Clippers to set the franchise record with his 45th consecutive game of at least 20 points. Leonard went to the locker room in the first half with a cut over his left eye and departed for good with 9:27 remaining in the game when he rolled his left ankle.

Daruis Garland scored 25 points after missing the front end of a back-to-back Friday with injury management on a sore toe. Bennedict Mathurin scored 24 points for Los Angeles, which lost for just the second time in its last nine games.

The Clippers struggled on defense from the start, trailing 33-31 after one quarter and falling behind 68-54 at halftime. The Kings shot 66.7% from the floor in the first half, outrebounding the Clippers 24-15.

Los Angeles was held to 21 points in the third quarter as Sacramento entered the fourth with a 92-75 advantage.

The Clippers used a 20-4 run to pull within 101-98 with 5:24 left after three-point play from Mathurin. Leonard departed during the stretch with his ankle injury.

Daeqwon Plowden (15 points) and Nique Clifford (11 points) hit consecutive 3-pointers as Sacramento took a 112-102 lead with 2:37 left. DeRozan sealed the victory on three free throws for a 115-106 lead with 1:25 remaining.

The Kings finished 58.5% from the floor, while the Clippers shot 46.4%.

–Field Level Media

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