Three MLB Teams Facing Regression in 2026

Milwaukee Brewers slugger Christian Yelich pondered why so many pundits, analysts and fans always pick his team to fail. “This is the year,” they always seem to say, “when the Brewers finally fall on their face.”

And then they go out and make the playoffs anyway, like the Brewers have done seven times since 2018.

“I don’t know if people think that every year is a fluke, or what — you’d have to ask them,” Yelich told reporters gathered for a workout at American Family Field in Milwaukee earlier this week. “A lot of people have been really waiting for the day that we suck so they can finally say ‘I told you so.’ “

As the 2026 Major League Baseball season revs up, the annual “Doubting of the Brewers” is happening again. Milwaukee is one of at least three teams primed for disappointment in the coming year. The Cleveland Guardians and Toronto Blue Jays, two other playoff teams this past season, also are setting up for regression.

Milwaukee Brewers

What is it that this time will push the three-time reigning NL Central champs over the edge and out of the running? Chief among other factors, the Brewers in the offseason traded ace right-hander Freddy Peralta to the New York Mets for prospects. Brewers general manager Matt Arnold could prove prudent for doing so in coming seasons, as Peralta is due a big pay day because of free agency leverage. But for now, the Brewers rotation will rely on wunderkind Jacob Misiorowski regaining his pre All-Star dominance, old ace Brandon Woodruff regaining his pre-injury effectiveness, and several middle-of-the-road guys to fill out the rotation.

It’s a pattern the Brewers keep repeating with their best players. So far, they’ve managed to avoid paying the consequences by not paying Willy Adames, Josh Hader, Devin Williams, and Corbin Burnes. Right-hander Brandon Sproat, one of the prospects pried from the Mets, made the Brewers starting rotation after a strong performance in the Cactus League. No matter what Sproat contributes as a rookie, it’s unlikely to match what Peralta gives the Mets.

It’s a simple equation: the Brewers lose their ace to the Mets, who use him to take their spot in the playoffs.

Cleveland Guardians

Guardians ownership operates under similar economic limitations to that of the Brewers, notably trading away star shortstop Francisco Lindor to the Mets earlier in the decade. In 2025, they successfully outran a pending payday for slugger Josh Naylor, and managed to keep winning despite a mid-season suspension for All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase, who’s now facing prison time for pitch-fixing allegations related to gambling.

All it took was an unprecedented hot streak in the second half, along with a crash by the Detroit Tigers, to erase a record 15 1-2 game deficit in the AL Central.

Resilient bunch, those Guardians. But even with slugger José Ramírez locked into one of the most team-friendly contracts for a superstar in recent MLB history, they’re spreading themselves a little too thin. Steven Kwan has to play center field. Rhys Hoskins will hit fifth. The bullpen will be stretched even further with Hunter Gaddis already on the injured list. Outfield prospect Chase DeLauter has to defy history and stay healthy.

The Tigers overcame their own regular-season collapse in the playoffs, and the Royals are ready to jump the Guardians in the AL Central. Cleveland just won’t be good enough to make the playoffs this time.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays had a magical season in 2025, coming this close to beating the Dodgers in the World Series. Anything less than winning it all would be a disappointment this season, but the Jays are starting off too ominously to be too optimistic about returning to the postseason.

They have five pitchers on the injured list to start the season, including three starters — rookie wonder Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber and José Berríos. Key reliever Yimi García too. Getting to the World Series means a lot of great things happened, but it also extends your season and pushes the human body in ways that don’t bode well for follow-up success. It could even catch up to the Dodgers.

With suspect pitching depth, star slugger George Springer about to turn 37, and the rest of the league ready to pounce on the defending AL pennant winners, the Blue Jays have a very narrow path to success and too many “ifs” to avoid disappointment in 2026.