Tech
Starship’s path to reusability looks murky after SpaceX’s S-1
SpaceX’s recent IPO and Starship rocket test flight delivered two big data points that offer a realistic vision for the coming years — and one that may disappoint both the company’s boosters and its critics.
Hidden behind the fantastic expectations for AI enterprise profits and plans for a moon base is a more grounded reality: An expendable Starship could keep SpaceX in business, but doesn’t achieve the cost reductions — or frontier business models — Elon Musk is betting on.
SpaceX is many businesses, but right now only one is producing significant revenue. Starlink, its satellite communications network, is the tent pole of the firm’s public offering. The top line is fairly incredible; SpaceX’s connectivity business generated $11.4 billion in revenue last year, the bulk of the company’s earnings.
But underneath, you can see the capital expenditure treadmill that scared previous entrepreneurs away from this model. SpaceX needs to replace about a fifth of its satellites every year just to maintain its current level of service. It has invested more in its satellite business ($11.4 billion) since the beginning of 2023 than it has building Starship and its launch infrastructure ($8.4 billion).
SpaceX’s S-1 filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission predicts costs will continue growing, but expects that improvements to its technology will allow it to reduce them as a percentage of its revenue.
Musk has said that Starship is the key to keeping Starlink’s costs under control, even saying that SpaceX could go bankrupt without the vehicle’s ability to replace those satellites cheaply. In that context, a note that stood out in SpaceX’s S-1 was the first acknowledgment that full reusability of Starship isn’t necessary to launch the new generation of Starlink satellites. But without full reusability, the cost will go up, making the business less attractive.
“If this reusability is not achieved then the cost of launch on Starship may not be much lower than Falcon 9, even if the full 100 ton capability is realized (which is by no means a foregone conclusion),” satellite market analyst Tim Farrar wrote in a note to clients last week. “The cost per launch may be as much as $100M (i.e. $1000 per kg) while tempo remains constrained by the rate at which second stages can be manufactured and first stages can be refurbished.”
Last week’s test flight of the third version of Starship and its booster bore those concerns out. The newest rocket’s maiden flight saw issues with a key capability for reusability — relighting the Raptor rocket engines on both the booster and Starship in order to make a controlled return to Earth. Starship did, however, deploy a set of dummy satellites and two test vehicles in space.
That helps square SpaceX’s prediction that it will begin launching a new generation of higher-throughput Starlink satellites 60 at a time, a twentyfold increase in capacity compared to a single Falcon 9 launch, later this year. At first glance a classic example of Musk’s timelines, it may actually be an expectation that initial launches will expend the Starship. If so, SpaceX might not be able to count on as much free satellite cash as expected, and its plans to launch space data centers will become untenable until the rocket is reusable.
Starlink growth slows
At the same time, SpaceX’s S-1 shows that Starlink’s growth is slowing.
SpaceX’s total addressable market calculation is based on its ability to offer service to every fixed-broadband subscriber or mobile handset in the world. That’s unlikely, though, because Starlink isn’t competing on price with terrestrial fiber. The rest of the document suggests SpaceX continues to see direct-to-device as a complement, rather than a replacement, for terrestrial mobile providers.
Starlink has just over 10 million subscribers, more than any other satellite communications network. But Farrar notes the rate of user growth fell over the course of the first quarter of 2026. Quilty Space, a space consulting firm, projected earlier this year that SpaceX would end the year with 16.8 million subscribers. That would require the company’s quarterly growth rate to roughly double from where it is now, which may be difficult after recent price increases.
Growth matters for SpaceX because its new Starlink users are paying less than previous ones. Starlink’s average revenue per user has fallen from $99 in 2023 to $66 in the first quarter of 2026 — a change propelled by its expansion into new international markets where it can’t charge as much as it does in developed economies. Without a fast-growing user base, each new satellite launched is making less money.
Increased competition also threatens Starlink. Amazon’s Leo network is approaching the scale required to put pressure on SpaceX, although it is waiting for the Federal Communications Commission to extend a deadline that requires it to launch 1,600 internet satellites by July.
Data in the SpaceX filing presents a gloomy growth forecast for the company as well as rivals like Blue Origin. Farrar says that if SpaceX — much further ahead than any other company — is seeing slowing demand, that may signal the market for space broadband is smaller than the players anticipated.
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Tech
VC-backed startups commit more fraud, and researchers think they know why
A new report from the U.K.’s Imperial College and France’s Emlyon Business School has mapped out the ways Silicon Valley’s VC-backed founders commit fraud — and the role investors play.
For the report, published online in June, researchers built a database of tech founders and companies who faced civil and criminal securities fraud prosecutions from the SEC and DOJ between 2000 and 2023.
Some famous cases of tech founders being convicted of fraud over the past few years include Frank’s Charlie Javice, Kalder’s Gökçe Güven, Terraform Labs’ Do Kwon, and GameOn’s Alexander and Valerie Lau Beckman.
All over X, the tech industry’s social network of choice, the topic of fraud and its gentler word “scam” are discussed, as people debate the limits of ambition and success. “Fraud is much more common and normalized in the startup world than we are ready to admit and accept,” Tim Weiss, one of the authors of the report, told TechCrunch.
He pointed to another report from the University of Toronto (UT), also published in June, that looked at 654 fraud cases against U.S. VC-backed startups from 2000 to 2023. It found that fraud is rare overall but that companies with venture funding were more likely to face fraud charges compared to companies that didn’t take venture funding. It found that startups launched during overheated markets with weak oversight and investor due diligence are 19% more likely to later commit fraud.
“The problem here is not just the founders but also those that set and reinforce, at times unreasonable, expectations of high growth,” Weiss said. He added that the current frothy AI startup environment is exactly the kind of conditions that tempt founders into fraud.
Weiss’ paper, co-authored with Emlyon researcher Nevena Radoynovska, discusses what may happen when founders face a gap between how investors want their startups to perform and how they are actually performing. They may turn to “façading,” as the paper calls it, in three increasingly dishonest stages: surface, reinforced, and deep.
Surface façading is when founders lie about how successful the company is or is becoming. It’s common during the early stages of a company when it’s pitching its vision to investors. It’s a level of dishonesty higher than just pitching an aspirational vision or an astronomical total addressable market.
After the surface façade, the founder may move into “reinforced façading,” according to the paper, which involves creating fake evidence to back up the lies told.
The paper gave the example of a mobile testing app that created fake customer contracts and invoices, recorded fake revenue, and used those fake documents to convince VCs to back it at a unicorn valuation.
From there founders may enter “deep façading,” where they extend their lies to areas like making their tech seem more capable than it is, complete with fake demos. This involves entire “parallel realities” built on lies, Weiss said.
But investors aren’t always hapless victims, the researchers found. Beyond the outsized growth expectations that push founders toward fraud in the first place, some investors unwittingly “co-create fraud,” Weiss said, by continuing to back founders—sometimes the very same ones— who’ve previously been accused of fraud, thereby normalizing it to a certain extent.
In fact, the UT report found little evidence that alleged fraud prevents founders from raising funding for new startups, even when those fraud cases received major media attention.
“New investors and the broader VC market do not penalize past misconduct,” the UT report said, which is “also consistent with the Silicon Valley culture that embraces failure regardless of the cause.”
The study also found that startups whose boards were controlled by the founders were twice as likely to commit fraud compared to those with investor-controlled or shared-controlled boards.
Even more interesting, it reported that after VC-backed startups go public, they are more likely to face securities class-action lawsuits within two years compared with private equity-backed companies that go public.
The fact that companies are staying private longer also contributes. Public companies undergo more scrutiny than private ones. “Founders do not have a professional body or association that could govern or enforce rules of entrepreneurial and investor conduct on how to be a good founder and what reasonable growth expectations are,” Weiss said.
Weiss proposes that the SEC routinely investigate and conduct formal audits on startups after they hit a large “investment threshold.” Currently, the SEC typically waits for something like a whistleblower complaint or a lawsuit from investors or former employees to trigger an investigation.
Weiss’ paper also suggests that investors should take more accountability when pushing founders to hit extreme growth metrics.
“Investors should be held liable for corporate governance failures and violating their fiduciary duties,” he said. He wants to see more research into “entrepreneur-investor dynamics” that could help prevent fraud and also “balance the overemphasis on the entrepreneur as the sole perpetrator of wrongdoing.”
Fraud is rarely a solo act, in other words, and until investors are held to account for the pressure they exert, founders will likely keep facing the temptation to fake it until they make it.
This piece was updated.
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Tech
Fresh off its Wiz payout, Index Ventures raises $2B across three funds
Index Ventures has raised $2 billion in fresh capital across three funds, the firm announced on Friday.
The 30-year-old firm raised $400 million for its new seed-focused fund and $900 million for its venture fund. Index also added $700 million to a $1.5 billion growth fund raised in 2024, bringing its total available capital to $3.5 billion.
The fresh capital haul comes two years after Index raised $2.3 billion across two funds, including $800 million toward a predecessor venture fund.
While Index has refrained from ballooning its fund sizes unlike several other VCs, the outfit continues to stand out for its strong recent performance.
Earlier this year, Index portfolio company Wiz completed its $32 billion sale to Alphabet. Index first invested in Wiz at the seed stage and became its largest outside shareholder with a 12% stake, a position likely worth $3.8 billion, according to Reuters’ reporting. Index was also an early investor in Figma, which went public last year.
Index’s AI bets include robotics company Physical Intelligence, inference platform Fireworks AI, and Anthropic, an investment made when the AI model maker raised capital at a $183 billion valuation last September.
Tech
Google nixes its Earth AI feature one day after launch, amid criticism it would spread misinformation
Google rolled out a new feature on Thursday that allowed users to deploy Nano Banana 2, its AI image generator, to create fabricated images inside its satellite imagery mapping app Google Earth. The whole point of this feature, Google said, was to get creative with geography.
But critics quickly pointed out that the tool could be used to create and spread misinformation. The tool, which was prompt-based and allowed pretty much any image to be superimposed over real maps, seemed like a recipe for a deluge of geospatial slop.
“There’s no way that this new AI image generation feature on Google Earth, one of the most reliable sources of visual evidence for journalists and researchers, could possibly be abused to spread misinformation online,” a BBC journalist posted sarcastically Thursday.
Now, only a day after the feature’s release, Google has scrapped it.
“We’ve seen geospatial professionals using this feature for a range of useful purposes, however we’ve also seen people sharing screenshots of generated imagery that appear to violate our policies,” the company said in a statement.
“We’re rolling back this feature in Google Earth while we work on implementing stronger guardrails,” Google added.
The criticism of Google’s tool is understandable, although it’s worth pointing out that, in the age of AI, most imagery that exists on the web can be easily manipulated. You don’t have to be a Photoshop whiz anymore to create semi-credible disinformation; you just need access to an AI image generator, which Google sells, as do many other AI firms.
