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NFL Playoff Picture Entering Week 18: Breaking Down Playoff Scenarios

Dec 29, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) passes against Green Bay Packers in the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn ImagesDec 29, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) passes against Green Bay Packers in the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

The NFL saved the best for last when it comes to the regular season.

The Detroit Lions will host the Minnesota Vikings in a prime-time, high-stakes matchup that will determine the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The winner will get a bye and home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs, and the loser will go on the road as a wild-card team in the opening round.

A loss on Sunday night will not crush either team’s playoff hopes, but a win will make things significantly more favorable for a potential Super Bowl run.

The Lions-Vikings showdown is obviously the best game, but it is not the only game this weekend that includes postseason implications.

Here is a look at the playoff picture entering Week 18:

AFC

Dec 25, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (left) and tight end Travis Kelce (right) open their Netflix Christmas GameDay cake after the Chiefs defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn ImagesDec 25, 2024; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (left) and tight end Travis Kelce (right) open their Netflix Christmas GameDay cake after the Chiefs defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)

The Chiefs already have clinched the AFC West and the No. 1 seed in the conference. Their biggest goal is to stay healthy in a regular-season finale against the Denver Broncos that is essentially meaningless to Kansas City.

2. Buffalo Bills (13-3)

Buffalo also can let the foot off the gas this week against New England. The Bills have locked up the AFC East crown and the No. 2 seed.

3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

Baltimore won the AFC North with a win against the Cleveland Browns, coupled with the Cincinnati Bengals beating the Steelers.

4. Houston Texans (9-7)

C.J. Stroud and the Texans are set to return to the playoffs. They have clinched the AFC South and the No. 4 seed.

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

Pittsburgh has clinched a playoff berth.

6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)

Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers also have locked up a playoff bid. They can bump up to the No. 5 seed if they beat the Las Vegas Raiders and the Steelers lose to Cincinnati. If those two things do not happen, the Chargers will be the No. 6 seed.

7. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8)/Denver Broncos (9-7)

So you’re telling me I have a chance. The Bengals have a glimmer of hope to reach the playoffs because they beat the Steelers to win a fifth consecutive game but still need the Broncos to lose to the Chiefs and the Dolphins to lose to the Jets.

The Broncos got no help from the Bengals but can clinch a playoff spot by beating or tying the Chiefs, who will be resting their most important players.

8. Miami Dolphins (8-8)

The Dolphins grab the final wild-card spot if they beat the Jets and if the Broncos lose to the Chiefs. Nobody will be cheering harder for Kansas City than the Dolphins this weekend.

NFC

Nov 10, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) attempts a pass during the first quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn ImagesNov 10, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) attempts a pass during the first quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

1. Detroit Lions (14-2)

As we mentioned above, the Lions can lock up the No. 1 seed and a bye with a win or tie against the Vikings. It’s incredible drama for a team with Super Bowl aspirations.

2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)

The Eagles have clinched the NFC East and the No. 2 seed. This weekend’s finale against the New York Giants is nothing but a final warm-up.

3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6)

The Rams have clinched the NFC West. They can clinch the No. 3 seed with a win or tie against the Seattle Seahawks, and they also will clinch the third spot if the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lose or tie against the New Orleans Saints. Otherwise, the Rams will slip to the No. 4 seed.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)

The Buccaneers will be NFC South champions if they win or tie against the injury-riddled Saints. They also will win the division if the Atlanta Falcons lose to the Carolina Panthers. There is a path for Tampa Bay to grab a No. 3 seed, but the most likely outcome is that they beat New Orleans and earn the No. 4 seed.

5. Minnesota Vikings (14-2)

The Vikings can leap to No. 1 with a win on Sunday night. Otherwise, they will be the top wild-card team in the NFC and have to do their work on the road throughout the playoffs. If the Vikings finish No. 1, the Lions will slide to No. 5.

6. Washington Commanders (11-5)

The Commanders have clinched a playoff spot, so that is not in question. The only thing left to be decided is whether Washington can secure the No. 6 seed, which it would do with a win against the Dallas Cowboys or a loss by the Green Bay Packers against the Chicago Bears.

7. Green Bay Packers (11-5)

The Packers can move up to No. 6 with a win over Chicago and a Commanders loss against the Cowboys. Otherwise, Green Bay will get the No. 7 seed.

8. Atlanta Falcons (8-8)

Yes, we skipped No. 8—bear with us. The Seattle Seahawks technically are in the eighth spot, but they have been eliminated from playoff contention. The Falcons sit in ninth but have a shot to clinch the NFC South if they beat Carolina and if the Buccaneers fall to the Saints. This is a long shot, but Atlanta is not out yet.

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After late rally, Royals bid for rare road sweep of Mariners

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Seattle MarinersMay 2, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Kansas City Royals pitcher Lucas Erceg (60) shakes hands with catcher Carter Jensen (22) following a victory against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images

As Emerson Hancock was warming up Saturday, he caught himself watching some of the video tributes on the scoreboard at T-Mobile Park for Randy Johnson, whose No. 51 jersey was retired by the Seattle Mariners in a pregame ceremony.

Hancock then went out did his best impression of the “Big Unit.”

The former first-round pick struck out a career-high 14 batters over seven innings but didn’t get a decision as the Kansas City Royals rallied for a 3-2 victory in 10 innings.

The Royals, who came to Seattle with a 3-12 road record, will try for a sweep of the three-game series Sunday afternoon. They’ve already clinched their first road series victory of the season.

“You know a lot of these games are going to be close when you’re playing good teams,” Royals manager Matt Quatraro said. “Today the pitching really held up and the offense came through. (Friday) it was more the opposite. When things are going well for you, you’re winning games no matter which way you have to do it.”

Hancock, whose previous best was nine strikeouts set March 29 against Cleveland in his first start of the season, allowed one run on six hits and didn’t walk a batter.

“Congrats to Randy on an incredible career,” Hancock said. “It was an honor for me to pitch on a night like this. You just want to go out and execute the best you can.”

Catcher Cal Raleigh was a late scratch for undisclosed reasons, so Hancock worked with veteran backup Mitch Garver instead.

“He and Garve had an incredible game plan, mixing hard and soft,” Mariners manager Dan Wilson said.

Wilson described Raleigh, coming off a record-breaking season with 60 home runs, as having “just a little soreness.” He said the catcher would undergo additional testing Sunday but refused to disclose what part of Raleigh’s body was ailing.

The Royals tied the score in the ninth inning.

Salvador Perez led off with a single and was replaced by pinch-runner Lane Thomas, who advanced to second on a balk by Mariners closer Andres Munoz. With one out, Jac Caglianone lined a single to left-center, with the ball bouncing between the legs of outfielder Julio Rodriguez and rolling all the way to the wall, allowing Thomas to score and Caglianone to take third.

Maikel Garcia’s sacrifice fly in the 10th produced the winning run after ghost runner Michael Massey stole third base on a pickoff attempt by Garver.

“Not exactly how we drew it up,” Quatraro said.

The Mariners took the lead in the fifth as Leo Rivas scored on a wild pitch with the bases loaded. They blew a chance at a big inning when Randy Arozarena forgot the count and was picked off first base.

“It was kind of a crazy game with the balk and Randy losing track …” Wilson said. “You don’t play this game without embarrassing things happening at times.”

Sunday’s series finale is set to feature Royals left-hander Kris Bubic (2-1, 3.74 ERA) against Mariners right-hander Luis Castillo (0-2, 6.35).

Bubic took a no-decision Tuesday against the Athletics in a game the Royals won 4-1 in West Sacramento, Calif. He went five innings and allowed one run on four hits, with four walks and six strikeouts. Bubic is 1-0 with a 7.27 ERA in four career starts against Seattle.

Castillo is coming off an 11-4 loss at Minnesota in which he gave up seven runs over five innings. He’s 3-2 with a 3.47 ERA in eight previous starts versus the Royals.

–Field Level Media

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White Sox pursue sixth straight victory, sweep of Padres

MLB: Chicago White Sox at San Diego PadresMay 1, 2026; San Diego, California, USA; Chicago White Sox first baseman Munetaka Murakami (5), right is congratulated by center fielder Tristan Peters (29), left, and catcher Drew Romo (36) after hitting a three-run home run during the second inning against the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

While the Chicago White Sox’s power duo of Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery didn’t homer on Saturday night, their ability to hit the long ball has fueled the team’s longest winning streak in four years.

Chicago beat the host San Diego Padres 4-0 on Saturday night for its fifth straight victory and will go for a series sweep on Sunday afternoon.

Murakami leads the majors with 13 homers, and Montgomery is tied for 13th with nine. They’ve homered in the same game seven times in the team’s first 33 contests, the most by any teammate duo within the first 35 games of a season in MLB history.

“When you have guys in the middle of the order that are able to change the score with one swing, obviously it’s going to make a big difference,” White Sox manager Will Venable said.

Add Miguel Vargas’ six homers to the mix and you have three players teaming for 28 of the club’s 40 homers, which are good for a ninth-place tie in MLB.

Murakami, in his first season in the majors after playing in Japan, only figures to be more dangerous as he learns more about the pitchers, most of whom he’s facing for the first time.

“There’s still a lot of learning curve of the game,” he said through an interpreter.

Murakami and his teammates will try to provide plenty of run support Sunday for left-hander Anthony Kay (1-1, 6.12 ERA), who’s coming off a no-decision Monday in his team’s 8-7 home win over the Los Angeles Angels.

Kay permitted seven hits and four runs in four innings, walking two and striking out two. This will be his first career start against San Diego.

The Padres announced a change to their rotation after Saturday night’s game. Manager Craig Stammen said right-hander Griffin Canning would be activated from the injured list to make his first start of the season.

Canning, who was 7-3 with a 3.77 ERA last year for the New York Mets before suffering a season-ending ruptured Achilles, is 3-1 with a 2.86 ERA in four career starts against the White Sox.

Stammen said that the plan to start Canning on Sunday actually came to fruition earlier in the week.

“We just wanted to split Michael (King) and Randy (Vasquez) up a bit,” Stammen said.

Besides adding depth to a rotation that has battled injuries to start the season, Stammen also is looking for better, more consistent approaches from his hitters. San Diego has just nine runs in a four-game losing streak and was blanked at home Saturday for the first time this year.

“While there are some good at-bats in there, there are also some not-so-good at-bats in there,” Stammen said. “We have to figure out a way to stick nine good ones together through the entire lineup.”

The Padres are batting just .235 with a .307 on-base percentage this season, ranking 21st and 25th, respectively, in the majors. Their 29 homers are tied for 24th.

–Field Level Media

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Tigers hope to steal a series from Rangers

Syndication: Detroit Free PressDetroit Tigers pitcher Drew Anderson (38), left, hugs catcher Dillon Dingler (13) after 5-1 win over Texas Rangers at Comerica Park in Detroit on Saturday, May 2, 2026.

Aggressiveness on the bases could become a new dynamic for the Detroit Tigers.

As the Tigers look for a series win in the finale of a three-game home set with the Texas Rangers on Sunday night, Detroit’s sudden penchant for stealing bases could be a key.

The Tigers swiped four bases in a 5-1 win on Saturday to raise their season total to 14. While they haven’t torn it up on the bases this season, the Tigers are expected to turn to a bullpen game on Sunday, and Dillon Dingler said baserunning is a way to manufacture runs.

“It’s fascinating because we aren’t usually a team that runs the bases,” said Dingler, who hit a three-run home run in the first inning on Saturday. “It is something that applies pressure, though.”

Dingler leads the Tigers in RBIs (23) and slugging percentage (.495) and is tied with Kerry Carpenter for the team lead in home runs (six).

An injury to Casey Mize (right adductor strain) sent the right-hander to the 15-day injured list on Friday and has forced Detroit to turn to its bullpen to wrap up the series.

Tyler Holton (0-1, 5.54 ERA) is set to be the first pitcher for the Tigers. In nine career appearances against the Rangers, he is 1-0 with a 4.09 ERA in 11 innings.

On Tuesday, he gave up four hits and two runs while recording one strikeout in one inning as the Tigers lost 5-2 at the Atlanta Braves.

While the Tigers will piece together their pitchers on Sunday, the Rangers are scheduled to start right-hander Jack Leiter (1-2, 5.17 ERA), who made his major league debut, and only career appearance, on the road against the Tigers in 2024. He allowed eight hits, seven runs, walked three and struck out three in 3 2/3 innings.

In his most recent start, Leiter took the loss Monday after he gave up four runs on eight hits over six innings in a 4-2 home defeat to the New York Yankees.

Texas hopes Brandon Nimmo will return to the lineup as the team vies for a series win on Sunday night. He’s pushed through a hamstring strain the last three days but exited the series opener on Friday in the fourth inning after his third at-bat.

The Rangers already are playing without Wyatt Langford, who had a setback in his recovery from a Grade 1 flexor strain in his right forearm. He’s been on the injured list since April 22 and will be re-evaluated in a week.

Because of the chilly temperatures in Detroit on Saturday night, Texas manager Skip Schumaker played it safe with Nimmo. Without the outfielder, the Rangers’ offense managed just one run on seven hits.

“The thought is, if I can give him (Nimmo) maybe 48 hours almost with pulling him (Friday) and hopefully starting him tomorrow,” Schumaker told The Dallas Morning News. “I think that might really settle it down.”

–Field Level Media

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