MLB Betting Picks Today: Tuesday May 5th Pitcher Prop Bets

Happy Cinco de Mayo! On Taco Tuesday no less!

Let’s try to celebrate with a couple winning MLB Picks!

Season Record 16-13-1, +0.82 Units

Sandy Alcantara Over 18.5 Outs Recorded (+121 DK)

I am going to kind of crib from myself since I rolled with this the last time Sandy pitched. But again, innings are what Sandy does. He’s now gone 6 IP in all but one of his seven starts and for the most part he pitches to contact. His K% is just 16.1% and his 7.8% BB% is a bit elevated thanks to his one real clunker this year (6 BB in 5 IP). He induces grounders at a 47.9% clip (69th percentile as per Statcast) controls EV well (60th percentile) and he has a good infield defense behind me.

The Marlins rank eighth in MLB with five defensive runs saved from their infield. Also the Orioles are just kind of a sleepy team right now and the game is at the Marlins dreary and pitcher friendly home park. Barring just some bad batted ball luck, I really expect Sandy to just keep them in check.

Padres at Giants

Walker Buehler Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-133 DK)

I have not had the greatest success this season when I’ve gone with bad starters vs. terrible lineups. But hey, I believe in the concept and the Giants just can’t hit their way out of a paper bag all season as they’ve slashed a hideous .243/.287/.355.

They don’t strike out at an enormous clip as their 21.8% K% is 18th highest. But they’re trending a bit worse lately at 23.2% over the last two weeks. And they added Bryce Eldridge to their lineup tonight. He’s a big power bat that should boost their offense….I mean he has to help, they have a league low 19 homers so far. But he also comes with a lot of swing and miss as he had a 35.1% K% in 37 PA’s with San Francisco last September, and he’s got a 29.1% K% in AAA this year.

Buehler has a 21.1% K%, which is just about league average, so I’d expect him to get enough whiffs tonight to hit.