Entertainment
How to know whether you can trust a poll
A close election is all about uncertainty. So it’s not surprising that many Americans are relying on polls to offer comfort, or warning. Not all polls are created equal, however — and election experts caution that some are more impartial than others.
Not only that, pollsters vary wildly in their level of outreach, and how much they adhere to industry norms regarding data accuracy.
Take this poll released Wednesday by Quinnipiac University, which says Vice President Kamala Harris was ahead of former President Donald Trump by three percentage points in the battleground state of Michigan. On Twitter/X, the improved result for Harris buoyed her supporters, while Trump fans challenged the poll’s veracity.
Samara Klar, Ph.D., a political science professor at the University of Arizona’s School of Government and Public Policy, stresses transparency when it comes to deciding what polls to give credence to.
“A poll consumer should be able to clearly see how the data were collected, when it was administered, how many people are in the sample, and demographics of who they are,” Klar tells Mashable.
A weighty matter
Pay attention to whether a poll’s results are weighted, Klar adds, referring to the statistical technique done to data after collection. Weighting aims to correct sampling errors by measuring certain responses differently to account for the poll’s underrepresented groups.
For example, if few respondents of a poll are Gen Z, or female, that pollster may give more weight to younger women’s responses than older, male participants.
“If the data are weighted, it is helpful to know the criteria upon which the weighting was done,” says Klar.
Ideally, she adds, polls should have sample sizes close to 1,000 respondents, “as this allows for smaller margins of error and closer estimates.”
A margin of error — typically around 3% for 1,000 respondents — is a caveat, acknowledging a sample can never provide a full picture. The American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) describes error margins as “the range that [a respondent’s] answer likely falls between if we had talked to everyone instead of just a sample.
Mashable Top Stories
“For example, if a statewide survey of adults with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points finds that 58% of the public approve of the job their governor is doing, we would be confident that the true value would lie somewhere between 55% and 61% if we had surveyed to the whole adult population in the state.”
‘No way to be sure a poll is reliable’
Even accounting for ideal sample sizes, weighted data, and margins of error, David Wasserman, senior editor and elections analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, paints a less rosy picture of polling accuracy.
“There is no way to be sure a poll is reliable because response rates are very low these days,” Wasserman says. “Every pollster is making a different assumption about who will turn out and vote that may or may not turn out to be accurate. You can give the same raw data set to 10 different pollsters and you might get seven or eight different top-line results of a survey based on how the pollsters assume each cohort of voters are going to comprise the electorate.”
If it seems like random polls are popping up everywhere lately — not just the ones from established pollsters like YouGov or The New York Times/Siena College — well, that’s because they are. “There are plenty of newer pollsters with no track record or very limited track record this cycle, as there were in 2022,” Wasserman says. “Democrats are fond of pointing to Republicans flooding the zone with Republican-leaning surveys.”
“There is obviously an effort by mainstream and other pollsters to correct the under-sampling of Trump’s base of support in 2016 and 2020. Pollsters are going about that in different ways but one of the most common ways is to weight their sample by how voters recall voting in the 2020 election.”
The weighting of so-called “recall votes” aims to correct the hesitation of some voters to admit they voted for a past presidential loser. So pollsters weighting recall votes this cycle would give more emphasis to those admitting to voting for Trump in 2020.
One thing that unites all good pollsters, according to both Klar and Wasserman, is adherence to standards set by the AAPOR. Members of the organization, which includes the most respected pollsters, agree to abide by the organization’s Code of Professional Ethics and Practices. That includes standards on training, transparency, sampling methods, and weighting.
Reaching voters in the modern age
The dearth of responses to most polls requires careful consideration regarding weighting, Wasserman says. While the idea that pollsters are ringing up landlines is outdated, Wasserman says, even contacting people through cell phones, texts, or online panels is a challenge.
Many pollsters have also started utilizing mail to reach respondents, according to the New York Times — often with an offer of a financial incentive to take an online poll, referred to as a probability panel. The new methodology is a way to counter the low response rates of randomly calling potential voters, which is something only one notable pollster, Quinnipiac, still does.
“It’s common for telephone polls, even if they’re overwhelmingly cell phone samples, to wield less than 1% completed responses,” Wasserman says. “For every 100 phone calls you’re making, you might get one completed survey, sometimes it’s less than that.
“Text to web modality is reaching younger voters. But it’s difficult to reach 18-34-year-old voters no matter what mode you’re using, so what ends up happening is pollsters up-weight the respondents they do get in that age bucket to reflect their expected share of their electorate. But pollsters have to make a judgment call about what share they expect.”
The Cook Political Report features a national polling average on its website, culling the latest data from a range of respected and diverse pollsters, like Fox News and ABC News/Washington Post. Three times this year, Cook conducted their own battleground state polls with a large online panel.
“We can’t be positive that our numbers reflect the true state of play, but we made our best effort to come up with an approach that our polling partners, a Democratic firm and a Republican firm, both felt comfortable with,” Wasserman says.
While imperfect, polls still serve an important purpose, Klar insists.
“Polls are great at showing us a snapshot in time: what do people think now,” she says. “Forecasting requires that polls predict the future: Who will actually show up to vote weeks, or months, or sometimes years, from now? Will people change their minds between now and then? If you’re interested in learning what people think today, then polls are tremendously valuable.”
On the other hand, “if you’re looking for a crystal ball to predict the future, you have to take poll results with a grain of salt.”
Entertainment
Meta avoids another trial over social media harms as teen plaintiff drops lawsuit
Meta has skirted another jury over claims its platforms are facilitating a youth mental health crisis.
The company was set to go to trial in the Superior Court of California for the County of Los Angeles next week, but the 15-year-old plaintiff, referred to as R.K.C, has now dropped the lawsuit.
“In light of the overall successful result of the litigation and his concerns about enduring a grueling weeks-long trial, he has elected to withdraw his claims against Meta. He’s ready to close this chapter and focus on his recovery and engage in therapy as he aspires to have a normal life,” attorneys for R.K.C. said in a statement.
Lawsuit says AI tool disproportionately places Black prisoners in maximum security in Ontario
According to the lawsuit, R.K.C. said he became addicted to social media over the last seven years, and linked his anxiety and depression to extensive time online. Snapchat, TikTok, and YouTube were also named in the initial lawsuit, but the companies reached settlement deals with R.K.C prior to going in front of the jury.
Mashable Light Speed
“Days after settling with other social media companies, the plaintiff dropped his case against Meta, the only remaining defendant, without receiving any payment,” a Meta spokesperson said following the news. “The claims never held up, and this outcome makes clear that we will not back away from defending ourselves against baseless lawsuits.”
Meta’s spokesperson said the facts of the case could not prove that the company’s platforms caused R.K.C.’s mental health struggles. Meta previously called attention to the fact that R.K.C. had not spent significant amounts of time on Meta platforms, like Facebook and Instagram, in a Motion for Summary Judgment. The company also said they could not verify that R.K.C. had a long-standing account history on Meta platforms.
In March, Meta and YouTube were ordered to pay $6 million to another teen plaintiff who accused multiple social media companies of knowingly investing in design features that would hook users, despite knowing of their potential harm. The jury found the two companies liable for mental health-related harms caused by negligent design features and “social media addiction.” It was the first time a jury found social media companies responsible for the psychological effects of their platforms on teens.
At the time, Meta said it was appealing the decision. The company has faced multiple lawsuits brought forth by teens, parents, school districts, and state leaders. “Teen mental health is profoundly complex and cannot be linked to a single app,” a Meta spokesperson said following the March verdict. “We will continue to defend ourselves vigorously as every case is different, and we remain confident in our record of protecting teens online.”
Entertainment
NYT Connections hints today: Clues, answers for July 23, 2026
The NYT Connections puzzle today is not too difficult if you’re a frequent flyer.
Connections is the one of the most popular New York Times word games that’s captured the public’s attention. The game is all about finding the “common threads between words.” And just like Wordle, Connections resets after midnight and each new set of words gets trickier and trickier—so we’ve served up some hints and tips to get you over the hurdle.
If you just want to be told today’s puzzle, you can jump to the end of this article for today’s Connections solution. But if you’d rather solve it yourself, keep reading for some clues, tips, and strategies to assist you.
What is Connections?
The NYT‘s latest daily word game has become a social media hit. The Times credits associate puzzle editor Wyna Liu with helping to create the new word game and bringing it to the publications’ Games section. Connections can be played on both web browsers and mobile devices and require players to group four words that share something in common.
This Tweet is currently unavailable. It might be loading or has been removed.
Each puzzle features 16 words and each grouping of words is split into four categories. These sets could comprise of anything from book titles, software, country names, etc. Even though multiple words will seem like they fit together, there’s only one correct answer.
If a player gets all four words in a set correct, those words are removed from the board. Guess wrong and it counts as a mistake—players get up to four mistakes until the game ends.
This Tweet is currently unavailable. It might be loading or has been removed.
Players can also rearrange and shuffle the board to make spotting connections easier. Additionally, each group is color-coded with yellow being the easiest, followed by green, blue, and purple. Like Wordle, you can share the results with your friends on social media.
Mashable Top Stories
Here’s a hint for today’s Connections categories
Want a hint about the categories without being told the categories? Then give these a try:
-
Yellow: Rounded
-
Green: Nervous Nancy
-
Blue: Catch a flight
-
Purple: Math words
Meet The Mashable 101: Our list of the content creators shaping the internet today
Here are today’s Connections categories
Need a little extra help? Today’s connections fall into the following categories:
-
Yellow: Spherical things
-
Green: In an anxious state
-
Blue: Parts of an airport
-
Purple: Ending in geometry terms
Looking for Wordle today? Here’s the answer to today’s Wordle.
Ready for the answers? This is your last chance to turn back and solve today’s puzzle before we reveal the solutions.
Drumroll, please!
The solution to today’s Connections #1138 is…
What is the answer to Connections today
-
Spherical things: BASEBALL, GLOBE,
-
In an anxious state: EXCITED, FEBRILE, FRENETIC, INTENSE
-
Parts of an airport: PINS, SNAPS, TWEETS, VINES
-
Ending in geometry terms: APPOINT, DEPLANE, FELINE, JANGLE
Are you also playing NYT Strands? Get all the Strands hints you need for today’s puzzle.
If you’re looking for more puzzles, Mashable’s got games now! Check out our games hub for Mahjong, Sudoku, free crossword, and more.
Not the day you’re after? Here’s the solution to yesterday’s Connections.
Entertainment
NYT Strands hints, answers for July 23, 2026
Today’s NYT Strands hints are easy if you’re a veteran.
Strands, the New York Times‘ elevated word-search game, requires the player to perform a twist on the classic word search. Words can be made from linked letters — up, down, left, right, or diagonal, but words can also change direction, resulting in quirky shapes and patterns. Every single letter in the grid will be part of an answer. There’s always a theme linking every solution, along with the “spangram,” a special, word or phrase that sums up that day’s theme, and spans the entire grid horizontally or vertically.
By providing an opaque hint and not providing the word list, Strands creates a brain-teasing game that takes a little longer to play than its other games, like Wordle and Connections.
If you’re feeling stuck or just don’t have 10 or more minutes to figure out today’s puzzle, we’ve got all the NYT Strands hints for today’s puzzle you need to progress at your preferred pace.
NYT Strands hint for today’s theme: Hail to the chief petty officer
The words are related to the military.
Mashable Top Stories
Today’s NYT Strands theme plainly explained
These words describe military titles.
NYT Strands spangram hint: Is it vertical or horizontal?
Today’s NYT Strands spangram is vertical.
Meet The Mashable 101: Our list of the content creators shaping the internet today
NYT Strands spangram answer today
Today’s spangram is Navy Ranks.
NYT Strands word list for July 23
-
Recruit
-
Admiral
-
Ensign
-
Navy Ranks
-
Lieutenant
-
Commander
Looking for other daily online games? Mashable’s Games page has more hints, and if you’re looking for more puzzles, Mashable’s got games now!
Check out our games hub for Mahjong, Sudoku, free crossword, and more.
Not the day you’re after? Here’s the solution to yesterday’s Strands.
Stephen Curry first active player showcased by Hall of Fame
Cardinals OL Isaiah Adams facing gun charges in Canada
