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Guardians vs. Reds Monday Prediction: Best Bets for the Battle of Ohio

The Cleveland Guardians (54-53) and the Cincinnati Reds (49-55) meet at Great American Ball Park on the banks of the Ohio River in the battle of the Buckeye State. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed or streamed on ESPN.

As luck has it, I am in the Queen City this week, and if the kids get tired of Kings Island Amusement Park in the next couple of days, I wouldn’t mind finding our way over to the yard for some ball, dogs with Skyline Chili and other various ballpark snacks.

The Guardians had a rough time on the Suncoast of Florida, as the Tampa Bay Rays not only swept Cleveland, but the Guards were shut out in each of the final two games of the series. The Cleveland pitching staff bounced back after an 11-3 loss Friday, as it allowed just four runs in the past two outings. However, the offense needs to do something, or management needs to go out and grab a bat.

Meanwhile, the Reds did a good job at Busch Stadium II in St. Louis, picking up two wins in three at-bats to win the series. That’s the third consecutive series victory for Cincinnati, who improved to 6-3 in the past nine games, all on the road.

The last time we saw Cincinnati at GABP, it suffered a series loss to the division-rival Chicago Cubs July 10-12. In fact, while the Reds have won three straight series on the road, they’ve dropped four consecutive series at home, going 3-9 in the past 12 outings, including two series losses against division rivals.

Cleveland turns to RHP Slade Cecconi (4-7, 4.60 ERA, 1.45 WHIP) to snap the team’s skid. The Guardians are in a tailspin, losing each of the past five games, while scoring just four total runs in the past four outings. As luck has it, the last time it had an offensive eruption, it scored six for Cecconi at home against the Minnesota Twins last Wednesday, but the Twins dropped a 10-spot.

Cincinnati counters with RHP Chase Burns (12-1, 2.42 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) across his 19 starts this season. He has been a godsend for the Cincinnati rotation, especially since he has accounted for 24.5% of the team’s victory total.

The Reds need Burns to stay hot, as Cleveland won two of three meetings with Cincinnati at Progressive Field May 15-17, with the Guardians averaging 7.7 runs per game (RPG) in the three-game set. It’s baseball, and Cleveland is due after getting blanked in back-to-back games. But, it still seems rather improbable it will explode against one of the best pitchers, statistically, in the National League.

While the Over cashed in the first three meetings in Cleveland in mid-May, the lean is to the UNDER 8.5 (-105).

And while you’ll be eating a little bit more chalk than I’d like, REDS ML (-174) is a strong play based on the red-hot Burns, and the ice-cold Cleveland offense. Let’s just hope Cecconi doesn’t get tuned up. The Reds have won four of five games, with the Under going 4-1 in that span. Cincinnati has totaled 18 runs in the past six games (3.0 RPG), while allowing just 17 runs (3.4 RPG) in the past five outings. A same-game parlay (SGP) is a solid +183, which is worth a roll of the dice.

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LHP David Peterson, a key pickup for Cubs, open series at Cardinals

Jun 27, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher David Peterson (19) delivers a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers in the first inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn ImagesJun 27, 2026; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Chicago Cubs pitcher David Peterson (19) delivers a pitch against the Milwaukee Brewers in the first inning at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

David Peterson has been a welcome addition to the Chicago Cubs’ rotation. In three of his four starts since he was acquired in a trade from the New York Mets on June 25, the left-hander has held opponents to two runs or fewer.

He won two of those three, including his most recent appearance — an 11-2 triumph against the visiting Detroit Tigers last Tuesday. He didn’t allow a run and struck out four in 6 2/3 innings, his longest outing of the season.

That other start, however, was rough for Peterson (5-7, 5.97 ERA), who surrendered 10 runs on nine hits in just 3 2/3 innings of a 17-1 home loss to the St. Louis Cardinals on July 3. It’s one he’ll look to avenge when he gets the start against them in the opener Monday of a four-game set in St. Louis.

“I wasn’t really able to get those groundballs,” Peterson said after that game. “Part of it is there were probably some pitches that I left a little too much up in the zone. (The Cardinals) put some good at-bats together and some good swings on some balls.”

That outing put Peterson at 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA in three career appearances (two starts) against the Cardinals, allowing 19 runs on 23 hits in 12 2/3 innings.

The 30-year-old is just one addition of what could be more to come for the Cubs with the Aug. 3 trade deadline one week away.

“I love this team,” Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong said Saturday. “If we go get pieces, that’s only going to help us because of the way that we’re playing and what we’re capable of as this current clubhouse. There are a lot of big things that we can achieve with this group.”

Chicago holds a lead of 4 1/2 games as the first wild card in the National League after an 8-7 road loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sunday. The Cubs are 25-12 since June 11 and entered Sunday with more runs (226), more walks drawn (161) and having reached base at a higher clip (.351) than any other team in the league in that span.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, enter the series against their NL Central Division rivals looking to snap out of a slump that’s seen them drop seven of their 10 games coming out of the All-Star break.

They’ve lost three straight series after winning three of their previous four series heading into the pause. The Cardinals find themselves a game and a half behind the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final NL wild-card spot, with two other teams between them.

Their most recent setback came Sunday at home, a 5-3 extra-innings defeat to the Cincinnati Reds. St. Louis held a pair of one-run leads before giving up three runs in the top of the 10th inning.

“This game can humble you real quick,” said Cardinals pitcher Kyle Leahy, who struck out a career-high nine in his start Sunday. “I’m no stranger to that, so I don’t try to get too high on good outcomes. And you do a lot of your best learning in failure. So obviously, I don’t want failure, but yeah, you just try to stay as even keel as you can the whole time.”

As of Sunday evening, the Cardinals had not announced a starter for Monday’s game. Veteran left-hander Matthew Liberatore (5-7, 5.18) could be in line for the start. He pitched last Tuesday, surrendering five runs on nine hits and two walks with seven strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings in a 5-1 loss at the Los Angeles Angels.

Liberatore is 2-2 with a 3.38 ERA in 12 appearances (six starts) against the Cubs, including two games this season. He won a 5-1 decision with 5 1/3 scoreless innings at home on May 31, and he took a 6-4 setback in Chicago after giving up four runs (three earned) in five innings on July 5.

–Field Level Media

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Off IL, Jays' Max Scherzer looks to cool down Nationals, CJ Abrams

Apr 18, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Max Scherzer (31) reacts against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the fifth inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn ImagesApr 18, 2026; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Max Scherzer (31) reacts against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the fifth inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images

Max Scherzer will try to cool down red-hot CJ Abrams when the Toronto Blue Jays visit the Washington Nationals for the opener of a three-game series on Monday night.

Scherzer, who won a World Series with the Nationals in 2019, will come off the injured list and make the start on his 42nd birthday.

Abrams will look to continue his torrid run. In a 10-7 win against the visiting Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday, he went 3-for-5 with two homers, two runs scored and three RBIs.

Over his past seven games, Abrams is hitting .567 (17-for-30) with seven homers and 14 RBIs. He has 27 home runs overall, passing Ian Desmond (25 in 2012) for the most homers in a single season by a Nationals shortstop (2005-present).

“I’ve been swinging at better pitches,” Abrams said on Sunday. “Today, those were balls, but just swinging at better pitches and being more relaxed at the plate allows me to be more disciplined. Good things happen when I’m relaxed.”

Scherzer (1-4, 10.23 ERA) opposes left-hander Andrew Alvarez (2-3, 4.22) on Monday night. The veteran right-hander has made multiple trips to the injured list this season, the most recent for back spasms and a thumb issue. In a rehab start with Triple-A Buffalo last Wednesday he threw 56 pitches and struck out seven. He will be making his seventh start of the season.

Scherzer last pitched against Washington on July 28, 2023, throwing seven innings of one-run ball while striking out seven for the New York Mets to defeat the Nationals for the second time that season. The earlier game, on May 14, 2023 in Washington, was an 8-2 Mets victory.

Alvarez has worked as both a starter and reliever this season. Over his last three appearances, he is 0-2 with an 8.25 ERA. Last time out on July 20, he started against the host Colorado Rockies and gave up three runs on six hits in 4 1/3 innings.

Both teams are in wild-card contention. Washington took two of three from Arizona over the weekend and is one game behind the Diamondbacks for the third wild card in the National League. Toronto is 5 1/2 games behind Cleveland for the final spot and has five teams between itself and the Guardians.

In addition to Abrams heroics on Sunday, James Wood also hit two homers, giving him 30 on the season.

The Nationals traded infielder Curtis Mead to the Boston Red Sox late Saturday for pitcher Connelly Early. Third baseman Brady House was called up from Triple-A Rochester on Sunday and went 2-for-5 with two doubles and two runs scored.

“I think I’m just trying to get to the point where no matter what kind of at-bat it is, that I’m looking to hit the ball hard,” House said after his first major league game since May 18.

Toronto dropped a 6-1 decision to the Boston Red Sox in the rubber game of their series on Sunday.

George Springer, 36, had two singles, giving him his fifth multi-hit game over his past seven.

“He’s swinging at good pitches and laying off some stuff he was just putting in play a couple of weeks ago,” Blue Jays manager John Schneider said. “He has a good state of mind. He’s swinging the bat fast and he’s moving pretty well.”

–Field Level Media

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Mets welcome another contender as Atlanta comes to town

Jul 26, 2026; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets center fielder Tyrone Taylor (28) reacts after hitting a three-run home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the sixth inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-Imagn ImagesJul 26, 2026; New York City, New York, USA; New York Mets center fielder Tyrone Taylor (28) reacts after hitting a three-run home run against the Los Angeles Dodgers during the sixth inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-Imagn Images

The New York Mets will play a division leader for the third consecutive series when they host the Atlanta Braves for a three-game set starting Monday night.

After rallying to beat the National League West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday and snap a three-game skid, the Mets seek back-to-back victories for the first time since July 8-9 against Kansas City.

Zac Thornton (1-1, 1.93 ERA), a promising left-handed rookie, makes his fifth start and is coming off his first victory in the big leagues. Last Tuesday, he threw six shutout innings in Milwaukee, limiting the NL Central leader to just three hits and a walk as the Mets beat the Brewers 4-0.

The 24-year-old has thrown 18 straight scoreless innings over his last three starts.

Offensively, Tyrone Taylor has enjoyed a strong July, doing so even with limited plate appearances. The Mets outfielder, 32, returned to the team in late June after missing a month due to a right hip flexor strain. Since July 4, he’s hit five home runs in 27 at-bats, including a go-ahead, three-run shot in the sixth inning against the Dodgers that put the Mets up for good in their 8-3 win Sunday.

Over his last 14 games, Taylor is hitting .370 (10-for-27) with nine RBIs. He’s also performed well against lefties this season, batting .292 (19-for-65) with four homers and 11 RBIs.

The Braves, the NL East pacesetters, will start Martin Perez (6-6, 3.38). The left-hander has lost three of his last four starts and only thrown five full innings once in that span. He went four in his most recent start on Wednesday against San Diego. Coming off 16 days’ rest, he allowed only one hit and struck out three while not allowing a run. However, he issued four walks in the no-decision.

Atlanta has won seven of its 10 games coming out of the All-Star break, including Sunday, when it beat the host Baltimore Orioles 3-2 in 11 innings. The Braves survived a bases-loaded, none-out jam in the 10th inning before Austin Riley hit an RBI double in the ensuing frame.

“I talk about gritty wins,” Braves manager Walt Weiss said. “That’s another gritty win. We’ve had several of those recently.”

Drake Baldwin is following up his NL Rookie of the Year campaign last season with a better one this year. The All-Star catcher already has 20 homers, one more than last year, while improving his slugging and on-base percentages.

However, he has not fared well against the Mets or at Citi Field. He’s hit just .217 (10-for-46) against them in 14 games with two home runs and nine RBIs. In Queens, he was just 2-for-15 (.133) in five games last season.

While Atlanta is looking to make the playoffs for the eighth time in nine seasons, the Mets are last in the NL East, 18.5 games back and already looking to next year. That means they will probably be sellers ahead of the Aug. 3 trade deadline.

After New York hosts Atlanta, the Miami Marlins will come to town for a four-game series, so there will be no scheduled off days this week. Among the trade candidates are several relievers, but Mets interim manager Andy Green said while they will “be conservative to some degree,” he will still use trade candidates if they are sound.

“We’re here today,” he said. “We play to win a baseball game. We’ll do the same tomorrow.”

–Field Level Media

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