Sports
Do Conference Tournament Titles Translate to NCAA Tournament Success?
When you watch analysts fill out their NCAA tournament brackets, you normally see them pick a conference tournament winner in their brackets. How can you blame them? These teams are entering the tournament playing their best basketball of the season, and we all just got to watch them play winning basketball in a tournament setting.
Because of that, I wanted to find out whether there’s an advantage to power conference teams winning their tournament, or if some added adversity and rest are better when trying to win in March?
I looked at results from the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and Pac-12 tournaments since 2015 to see if I could find any trends within each conference and across the power conferences as a whole.
Over those 10 years, only four conference tournament champions have gone on to win the national championship, with half of those wins coming in the last two seasons. With the prevalence of NIL, I think we will see more conference tournament champions win in March Madness.
Another statistic that stood out was the number of first-round exits. Of the 59 teams examined, 15 exited in the first round of the tournament. Those 15 were fairly evenly distributed among the conferences, with each conference winner having at least 2 first-round exits since 2015, and the ACC, Big Ten, and Big 12 each having 3.
The Big 12 has the highest average success over the last decade. They only have two first-round exits and three final four appearances out of their conference tournament winners. The Big East follows closely behind the Big 12, but their conference is far more volatile.
UConn and Villanova have half of the four championships on this list, which helps the average finish for the Big East, but they have a median finish in the round of 32, whereas the Big 12’s median finish falls between the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.
The biggest shock on this list was the disappointing finishes from ACC tournament winners. The ACC had the second-lowest average finish for conference winners, zero national champions, and a tie for the most first-round exits. For a conference that’s won three national championships over the analyzed period, it’s shocking to see such a small amount of success from the teams that won the ACC tournaments.
Below are the conferences ranked in total final fours, and average finishes.
Final Fours:
1. Big East: 3 Final Fours, 2 Champions
2. Big 12: 3 Final Fours, 1 Champion
T3. ACC: 3 Final Fours, 0 Champions
T3. Big Ten: 3 Final Fours, 0 Champions
5. SEC: 2 Final Fours, 1 Champion
PAC-12: 0 Final Fours
Average Finishes:
- Big 12
- Big East
- Big 10
- SEC
- ACC
- PAC-12
My biggest takeaway from looking into these teams is not to put too much weight on how a team finishes its conference tournament.
What makes March Madness the best sporting event on the planet is the volatility. Teams can get hot for one game or one month, and you shouldn’t put too much pressure on a team to win its conference. The college basketball season is a marathon, not a spring. Pick the team that’s been the best for the longest period of time, not the one that’s just getting hot at the right time.
Sports
March Madness Cinderella Picks: Three Teams Ready to Bust Brackets
College basketball programs are handing out more money than ever to stack their rosters. Kentucky reportedly spent $22 million to keep four players from last year’s Sweet 16 squad and lure eight new ones.
Admittedly, the Wildcats aren’t a great example of maximizing your dollars considering they settled for a No. 7 seed in this NCAA Tournament, but many schools have learned how to marshal their ample resources to build the most efficient machines in college hoops history.
As recently as 2022, Gonzaga (+32.97) was the only school who entered the NCAA Tournament with a KenPom efficiency margin above the exalted plus-30 threshold. Only 15 teams exceeded the plus-20 mark.
As this year’s Tournament begins, we have eight schools higher than plus-30 (Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Florida, Houston, Iowa State, Illinois and Purdue) and 32 schools better than plus-20.
The rich are going to keep getting richer, smarter and stronger. Their coaches are de facto CEOs. Their conferences are transforming into oligarchies.
But they’re never going to find a way to stamp out Cinderellas.
Last year, we had Drake (No. 11 seed), McNeese (No. 12) and Colorado State (No. 12) ousting the big dogs in the first round.
In 2024, we enjoyed Duquesne (11), Grand Canyon (12), James Madison (12) and Yale (13).
In 2023, 15th-seeded Princeton barged into the Sweet 16 while Furman (13) and Fairleigh Dickinson (16) fostered more than their share of March Madness.
In 2022, 15th-seeded Saint Peter’s came up one win shy of the Final Four.
So which schools are going to smash their glass slipper over the head of a power conference school that looks too big and blustery to fail?
We’ve got three for you. For starters, keep in mind that in three of the last four NCAA Tournaments, two 12 seeds have upended No. 5 seeds in the first round.
This year? Those schools will be High Point, which battles Wisconsin on Thursday afternoon, and Akron, which faces Texas Tech on Friday afternoon.
This is no shade on the Badgers (though they have lost their last three first-round games as the 5 seed) or the Red Raiders. It’s just that High Point and Akron have the profiles to pull the upsets.
High Point, which boasts all the confidence in the world thanks to the nation’s longest active winning streak at 14 games, ranks third nationally in scoring at 90 points per game. The Panthers are decent from 3-point range (35.6%) and feature three good scorers led by senior wing Terry Anderson (16.0 ppg, 6.0 rpg), but their superpower is their turnover margin. Only McNeese, another 12 seed with a legit chance to win Thursday, enjoys a better turnover margin than High Point’s plus-7.1 per game.
As for Akron, this marks the Zips’ third straight trip to the NCAAs. They’re old. They’re athletic. They push the pace. Oh, and they feature SIX legit 3-point shooters ranging from Shammah Scott (42.2%) to stretch five Amani Lyles (37.9%). They’re not particularly big, but neither is Texas Tech with All-American JT Toppin out for the year.
So who’s the third team destined to be Cinderella?
No. 13 seed Hofstra should give No. 4 Alabama a fright, but the Crimson Tide will be on extra high-alert (no pun intended) after losing No. 2 scorer Aden Holloway (16.2 ppg) on Monday when arrested for possession of marijuana not for personal use — a felony.
It says here Furman, the 15 seed, will strike just like in 2023 even though the Paladins’ resume isn’t anything special. They finished fifth in the Southern Conference. They didn’t face any power conference teams, but they lost to NCAA Tournament entrants High Point, Troy and Northern Iowa by a combined 45 points. They only shoot 32.7% from 3-point range.
It’s all the perfect guise to lull UConn into complacency.
The Paladins have a star freshman point guard in Alex Wilkins (17.7 ppg, 4.7 apg), they have size and experience everywhere else and they get to face a UConn squad with two inexplicable losses in the last month (Creighton and Marquette) and two shellackings at St. John’s hands.
Don’t like this idea? Then how about No. 14 Wright State taking out Virginia? No. 13 Cal Baptist stunning Kansas in its first NCAA Tournament game? No. 13 Troy preventing Nebraska from collecting its first NCAA triumph?
Give us one Cinderella. Give us six Cinderellas. In this case, there’s no such thing as too much of a good thing.
Sports
Early NFL Free Agency Winners and Moves That Stand Out
Nov 7, 2024; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens general manager Eric Decosta one the field before the game against the Cincinnati Bengals at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images Another day, another wide receiver for the San Francisco 49ers.
Signing Christian Kirk one week into free agency — one year, $6 million — wasn’t trumpeted as a huge win, but you better believe Brock Purdy did a dance move or two knowing what his new collection of receivers can do for a team challenged to keep multiple reliable sets of hands on the field last season.
Kirk joins Mike Evans as one-time No. 1 receivers outside of slot wideout Ricky Pearsall, a massive breakout candidate as the 49ers shuffle the decks and tight end George Kittle makes the slow recovery from Achilles surgery.
Is it enough to contend with Super Bowl champion Seattle? Or beat the well-armed Rams’ secondary?
Perhaps not, but the 49ers have also fueled their offense well historically via the draft.
Who else made a positive early offseason impression?
Las Vegas Raiders
Dec 14, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) on the field after loss to the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images The Raiders can’t receive a perfect grade for their offseason to date given the outcome of the Maxx Crosby trade … or can they?
Crosby still has value. A perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate, he’ll wind up helping the Raiders by staying put or eventually moving on to bring back draft or player compensation for the early stage rebuild. But the scrapped trade on the Ravens’ end of the deal erased a clear plan to restock with draft picks.
Signing the top offensive lineman on the market was a power play for new coach Klint Kubiak’s zone scheme, where running back Ashton Jeanty should thrive.
It cost $13 million to move Geno Smith — the portion of his 2026 salary Las Vegas is picking up with the Jets kicking in less than half of that amount — and the Raiders still need more playmakers to make presumptive No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza successful. But moving Smith is another deal that sets the course for a turnaround.
New England Patriots
Jan 10, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs (87) runs after the catch for a touchdown against the Chicago Bears during the first half of an NFC Wild Card Round game at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images Romeo Doubs was a fringe No. 1 receiver with the Packers but doesn’t have the sustained production to fetch top dollar.
That’s where the Patriots are winners in the four-year deal with Doubs, who essentially replaces Stefon Diggs in the wide receiver room. Doubs has No. 1 traits and won’t need long to learn the trust of quarterback Drake Maye. Another score for New England was addressing the guard spot with Alijah Vera-Tucker. The 26-year-old is exactly the type of presence the Patriots lacked in the Super Bowl loss to the Seahawks.
Baltimore Ravens
Whether Crosby failed a physical or not, the Ravens lost reputation points across the league backing out of the deal with the Raiders. Maybe it was worth it.
Baltimore reclaimed a pick in the top half of the first round, didn’t have to pay Linderbaum elite left tackle money ($81 million over three years) and signed 31-year-old edge rusher Trey Hendrickson after the deal turned into a debacle.
Sports
Best 12 vs 5 NCAA Tournament Upset Picks for 2026 March Madness
Jan 27, 2026; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores guard Tyler Tanner (3) reacts after a made three point basket against the Kentucky Wildcats during the second half at Memorial Gymnasium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images The 12 versus 5 matchup in the tournament is always the trendy upset pick, but that might not be the case this season.
The five seeds look very strong, while the twelve seeds will be fighting a steeper up hill climbin than usual. With that being said, five seeds have only gone undefeated five times since 2000, so having one upset on your bracket is probably a smart call.
Here are the twelve seeds that I think have the best chance to play Cinderella in the first round.
#12 UNI (+470) vs #5 St. John’s -10.5
St. John’s is a dark-horse final-four team on a lot of brackets at the moment. The Big East champions, led by Rick Pitino, play a completely different brand of basketball from UNI. St John’s is going to speed the game up by applying full-court pressure and creating turnovers and extra possessions on offensive rebounds. The Panthers, on the other hand, play at the third-slowest tempo in the nation and the slowest of any team in the tournament.
In March, if you can limit the total number of possessions in a game, while shooting efficiently, you’ve got a great chance of pulling off an upset. UNI shot 41% from three over their four-game run through the Missouri Valley Conference to steal the conference as the 6 seed. St John’s played some of their best basketball in the Big East tournament, but we saw that happen last season, and then the Johnnies faltered out early, when they weren’t able to speed up the game in the tournament.
Too many people have St. John’s going on a deep run when they should be far more worried about this first-round matchup.
#12 Akron (+260) vs #5 Texas Tech -7.5
Mar 7, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Christian Anderson (4) reacts to a made three point shot during the second half against the BYU Cougars at Marriott Center. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images Akron is one of the trendy 12 seeds this season. They’re a veteran team, making their third straight appearance in the tournament, while Texas Tech can be a great team, but their ceiling feels very limited with the injury to their leader, JT Toppin.
The Zips have been a bit of a KenPom darling all season long.
They had been the highest-ranked MAC team despite losing to undefeated Miami in the regular season. Akron and Texas Tech have the closest margin in KenPom ratings among the 12 vs 5 games because Akron has been such an efficient offense all season. They shoot threes at 38.5% and can keep pace with a Texas Tech team that scores 80 points per game. The only reason I don’t have this in my No. 1 slot is Texas Tech’s defense.
Their entire game plan relies on them preventing threes, and if Tavari Johnson and Shammah Scott struggle to generate offense in the paint, the Red Raiders could beat up on an off-shooting Zips squad.
#12 High Point (+390) vs #5 Wisconsin -10.5
Mar 7, 2026; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard Nick Boyd (2) drives to the basket during the first half against the Purdue Boilermakers at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images Unlike the first two games mentioned, I would be very shocked to see upsets in these next two games. Similar to Akron, High Point is a popular upset pick this season. Everyone is looking at their 30-4 record and 10th-ranked offense in the nation in points per game, and believes they can pull off the upset. I don’t think there’s much of a chance that happens.
High Point is going to shoot a ton of threes and try to turn you over, but I think that plays right into Wisconsin’s strengths.
Nick Boyd is one of the best guards in the country, and the exact type of player you want leading your team in the tournament. He averaged 25 points a night in the Big 10 tournament, and 6 times. He’s the type of player Wisconsin can look to in big moments to control the game score at will against a bad Panthers defense. There’s a reason the largest discrepancy of KenPom ratings comes from these two in the twelve versus five round. The Badgers are a very solid team, and if they had Nolan Winter, they would have been a dark-horse Final Four team for me. Still, I definitely like them here in the round of 64.
McNeese St (+520) vs Vanderbilt -11.5
Maybe I’m still too caught up on the horrible performance McNeese St had in the tournament last season, but I don’t think they have any chance to pull this upset off. Vanderbilt is one of the most underseeded teams in March Madness, but they were paired with a Cowboys team that they match up exceedingly well with.
I don’t love it when underdogs need to rely on turnovers to win games in March. The Cowboys have a surprisingly efficient defense (41st in the country) but an offense that barely makes it into the top 100. I also don’t love an efficient small-conference defense that can’t translate that same level of success when they play against a team as strong as Vanderbilt. The Commodores have such great guard play with Duke Miles and Tyler Tanner, and I don’t see them turning the ball over enough to keep McNeese St in this. I love Vanderbilt in this game at -11.5, and I also don’t mind them as a Final Four team at +1100.
March Madness Cinderella Picks: Three Teams Ready to Bust Brackets
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