Sports
Big Ten March Madness Contenders Ranked by Analytics
The last time a Big Ten school won the NCAA Tournament, Dusty May was a senior at Indiana working as a team manager for Bob Knight and preparing for a life in coaching.
Considering the Michigan boss turns 50 in December, it has indeed been a long, long time since Michigan State — led by Tom Izzo, Mateen Cleaves and the rest of the Flintstones — captured the 2000 NCAA title in Indianapolis.
Now, all these years later, May has constructed the Big Ten’s most dominant team since Izzo’s champs, which means the Wolverines have a great chance to snap the league’s 25-year absence from the “One Shining Moment” spotlight.
As of Friday morning, Michigan was the odds-on favorite to win it all according to BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, FanDuel and presumably every other online sportsbook.
If you don’t care what the gambling world thinks, Michigan ranks No. 1 in Wins Above Bubble — a crucial metric the NCAA Tournament committee loves — along with a close No. 2 to Duke in the national NET ranking and KenPom.
Michigan’s KenPom rating of +38.39 ranks as the fourth-highest number since Ken Pomeroy started calculating his rankings in 1996-97. These Wolverines — who stand out because of their depth and their frontcourt led by likely first-team All-American Yaxel Lendeborg — trail only 1999 Duke, 2024 Duke…and the Duke team that just edged them on Saturday night in Washington, D.C.
Because Michigan boasts such a high ceiling, yet has struggled to reach it the last few games, May spends a lot of his time these days alternating between boosting and cajoling his bunch.
After Tuesday’s relatively narrow home win over Minnesota that clinched a share of the Big Ten title, May used such phrases as “We have such big and lofty goals in front of us…” and “I know this: The further we get into this, our guys have a further gear they can kick into…” and “Proud of our guys that we’ve been able to weather the storms to go through this (Big Ten) marathon that we’re on to get to this point, but if you get to the last five miles of a marathon and you collapse and you don’t stay hydrated, then it’s all for naught. We’ve got to keep pushing, keep moving forward and getting better.”
But Michigan (26-2) ain’t the only Big Ten squad on the short list of teams with a legitimate shot to capture the NCAA title on April 6 in Indianapolis.
Other Big Ten teams that can win the title
How do we know? Thanks to the steady improvements made in statistical analysis, predictive metrics and results-based metrics over the last 10-odd years — think Ken Pomeroy KenPom), Bart Torvik (T-Rank), Kevin Pauga (KPI), Evan Miyakawa, etc. — it’s easier to identify the teams truly worthy of a championship.
To put it another way, it’s nearly impossible for a great team’s potential to be camouflaged by a less than incredible record. For example, Illinois enters Friday’s visit from Michigan with a 22-6 record. That’s only good for No. 10 in the current Associated Press Top 25 and No. 11 in the coaches poll.
But KenPom sees through the record and ranks the Fighting Illini, who boast the nation’s most efficient offense, as the nation’s No. 4 team. Torvik has the Illini at No. 5.
It might not sound like a big difference whether you’re considered the nation’s fifth-best or 10th-best team, but the last decade’s worth of results suggests it’s huge.
Here are the last 10 NCAA champions and where they stood in KenPom’s national rankings when the brackets were revealed on Selection Sunday:
2025: Florida 2nd
2024: Connecticut 1st
2023: Connecticut 4th
2022: Kansas 6th
2021: Baylor 4th
2019: Virginia 1st
2018: Villanova 2nd
2017: UNC 3rd
2016: Villanova 5th
2015: Duke 6th
Of course, there’s no rule you have to be among the nation’s top six on March 15 or you can’t win the NCAA championship, but it’s clearly the trend. That’s why Illinois coach Brad Underwood doesn’t give a spit that Michigan has all but clinched the conference crown.
“I couldn’t tell you the Big Ten standings — and I mean that,” Underwood said Thursday. “I couldn’t tell you what that is. Michigan’s obviously in a place to win the league, but I couldn’t tell you who’s where. That is an absolute waste of my time.
“I do care about and look at the analytics and where we’re at and the NET and the KenPom and Torvik and all of that. I pay attention to that because it’s got wide-ranging stuff that helps me gauge my team much more than (the standings).”
With Michigan at No. 2 and Illinois at No. 4 in the current KenPoms, that’s two Big Ten teams that can dream on a title. Does anybody else belong alongside Duke, Arizona, Florida, Houston and Iowa State?
Purdue, No. 8 in KenPom, has enough time to climb into the top six, but the Boilers keep flunking key showdowns. With Thursday’s 2-point loss to Michigan State, they’ve dropped home games to Michigan, Illinois and Sparty — and the 23-point home loss to Iowa State on Dec. 6 also will resonate come NCAA seeding time.
So, No. 10 Michigan State? Perhaps, but it feels like Izzo has a team similar to last year’s that had to fight its guts out just to reach the Elite Eight. Izzo ratified that viewpoint during Peacock’s postgame show Thursday while sharing how much he enjoyed spending 90 minutes with former Purdue coach Gene Keady that morning. Among other things, they talked about how many teams today don’t seem as together.
“I said, ‘You know, that’s one thing I have: We’re not overly talented, but we are connected and together,’ ” Izzo said.
And No. 12 Nebraska? It has been a legendary year for Fred Hoiberg’s squad, but how can you project an NCAA championship for a school that has never won an NCAA Tournament game?
Sports
Kennedy Wesley's first goal, assist lead USWNT past Japan
Apr 17, 2026; Commerce City, CO, USA; United States defender Naomi Girma (4) kicks the ball in the middle of the field during the first half against Japan at DICK’S Sporting Goods Park. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-Imagn Images Kennedy Wesley scored and had an assist during a 17-minute, second half eruption when the U.S. women’s national team scored all its goals for a 3-0 victory over Japan in Commerce City, Colo., on Friday.
The U.S. won two of three in the series vs. Japan over the past week, prevailing in the finale on goals by Naomi Girma (47th minute), Rose Lavelle (56th) and Wesley (64th).
Wesley, who entered at halftime, got her first U.S. goal contribution in her sixth match on the opening score. She headed a corner kick by Lavelle to Girma in front of the goal for another header and Girma’s third career goal.
Lavelle stretched the lead to 2-0 after a pass by Trinity Rodman split the defense to send her on a break. Lavelle calmly scored from the top of the box to the left corner. She has 29 goals in 120 appearances for the USWNT.
Another corner kick, this one by Jaedyn Shaw, found the right foot of Wesley to extend the lead.
Several inches of snow were cleared from the field hours before the match and the kickoff temperature was 36 degrees.
Claire Hutton was the lone holdover starter from the United States’ 1-0 loss to Japan in Seattle on Tuesday. However, nine starters for this match also started in the 2-1 U.S. victory on April 11.
The U.S. outplayed but couldn’t outscore Japan in the first half with 70% possession, nine shots with two on goal while Japan’s one attempt was a comfortable for goalkeeper Claudia Dickey in the 5th minute.
There were three prime chances for the U.S. beginning with Colorado native Sophia Wilson’s try in the 20th minute. Tierna Davidson headed a pass to her in the center of the box, and Wilson put the shot on target, but goalie Chika Hirao parried it over the crossbar.
Nearly 20 minutes later on a break, Hutton took a setup in stride from Alyssa Thompson and ripped a shot off the bar from outside the box. In fourth minute of first-half stoppage time, Girma forced a close-range save.
–Field Level Media
Sports
Nolan Gorman's big blast offsets 3 Astros homers as Cards take opener
Apr 17, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; St. Louis Cardinals catcher Pedro Pages (43) runs to first base on a hit during the fourth inning against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images Nolan Gorman clubbed a three-run home run in the top of the seventh inning to give the St. Louis Cardinals plenty of breathing room as they claimed a 9-4 win in the opener of a three-game interleague series against the Astros in Houston on Friday.
Gorman smacked his third homer of the season 353 feet to right field to break open a nip-and-tuck affair. He plated Alec Burleson and Jordan Walker by turning on an inside fastball from scuffling Astros reliever Bryan Abreu while countering the three solo homers the Astros hit to climb back into contention.
Cardinals right-hander Kyle Leahy (2-2) surrendered all three homers but was otherwise effective. He allowed five hits and did not issue a walk while recording six strikeouts across five innings. Leahy stranded Yordan Alvarez in the bottom of the first and left the bases loaded in the fourth when he struck out Christian Vazquez and pinch-hitter Isaac Paredes in succession.
The Cardinals spotted Leahy a 3-0 lead before the Astros rallied.
JJ Wetherholt, Burleson and Walker all singled in the first off Houston right-hander Peter Lambert (0-1), the fourth consecutive pitcher making his first start for the Astros’ injury-marred rotation. Walker plated Wetherholt with his single to center for a 1-0 lead, an advantage the Cardinals upped in the third when Masyn Winn roped a two-run single that plated Wetherholt and Ivan Herrera.
Lambert loaded the bases with no outs in the third before nearly escaping unscathed. He struck out Walker and Gorman and had two strikes against Winn, but could not hold the deficit to one. Lambert allowed four runs on seven hits and one walk with eight strikeouts over five innings, with Herrera delivering an RBI single in the fourth that scored Pedro Pages for a 4-2 lead.
Vazquez and Alvarez smacked homers off Leahy in the third, with Vazquez leading off that frame with his second home run of the season before Alvarez added his eighth three batters later. Jose Altuve led off the fifth with his third homer to shave the deficit to 4-3.
But after Gorman provided the Cardinals some cushion, Herrera socked a two-run homer that scored Wetherholt in the eighth. Wetherhold scored three runs; Gorman and Herrera had three RBIs apiece.
–Field Level Media
Sports
Heliot Ramos powers Giants past host Nationals
Apr 17, 2026; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; San Francisco Giants infielder Luis Arraez (L) and Giants center fielder Drew Gilbert (R) walk back to the dugout after scoring runs on a two run single by Giants third baseman Matt Chapman (not pictured) against the Washington Nationals during the second inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images Heliot Ramos hit a three-run home run, Drew Gilbert and Casey Schmitt added solo shots and the San Francisco Giants beat the host Washington Nationals 10-5 on Friday night.
Matt Chapman had three hits and drove in three runs for the Giants, who have won two straight.
Logan Webb (2-2) went six innings for the win, allowing four runs on seven hits.
After scoring three or fewer runs in five straight games, the Giants jumped in front with a six-run second inning.
James Wood and Daylen Lile homered and Jose Tena had three hits for the Nationals.
Washington’s Zack Littell (0-2) gave up eight runs on 11 hits over four innings.
Schmitt and Jung Hoo Lee opened the second inning with singles and Ramos followed with his first homer of the season, a three-run shot to center, to make it 3-0.
After Daniel Susac singled and was thrown out attempting to steal, Gilbert walked and Willy Adames singled. Littell retired Luis Arraez on a groundout as both runners advanced, and Chapman lined a single to left center to make it 5-0. Rafael Devers doubled over the head of Wood in right and the lead was 6-0.
The Nationals got one back in the third. Tena singled and went to third on a single by Keibert Ruiz. Wood struck out, but Brady House grounded into a fielder’s choice and Tena scored.
Gilbert homered leading off the fourth to make it 7-1. Adames doubled and went to third on a ground out. With the infield in, Chapman singled between short and third to increase the lead to 8-1.
Joey Wiemer singled leading off the bottom half and Lile homered to center to pull Washington within 8-3.
Lile walked with one out in the sixth and scored on a two-out single by Tena.
Schmitt homered in the seventh to make it 9-4, but Wood answered in the bottom half to make it 9-5.
Ramos walked with the bases loaded in the ninth to push the lead to 10-5.
Luis Arraez had two singles and has hit safely in each of his 12 career games at Nationals Park.
–Field Level Media
Kennedy Wesley's first goal, assist lead USWNT past Japan
Nolan Gorman's big blast offsets 3 Astros homers as Cards take opener
