In the world of basketball, the saying goes, “a series doesn’t start until someone loses at home”. Well, we’re heading into game seven in Cleveland, and neither the Raptors or Cavaliers have been able to steal one on the road. If the Raptors want to pull off the big-time upset, they’re going to have to end that streak and find a way to pull one out in Rocket Arena.

The Cavs have been heavy favorites each game in this series, and enter Sunday once again as 8.5-point favorites. Cleveland is 2-1 ATS at home this series, and had to go the final two minutes of game five without scoring to not be 3-0 ATS.

That’s been the biggest negative for Cleveland in this series. They’ve struggled to close out games and threw away two road games against the Raptors, and now are battling to avoid a massive collapse here in this one.

However, despite losing game six in dramatic fashion, I think they figured a few things out. Donovan Mitchell finally came alive in the 4th quarter, scoring 11 points, finally figuring out how to get into the teeth of this large, physical Raptors defense.

A big reason Toronto’s defense has looked so great is the play of Scottie Barnes. He’s been the by far best player in the series, shutting down Mitchell and company on defense, and scoring on whoever’s thrown on him from Cleveland.

Shockingly, James Harden has actually done a solid job walling up against Barnes. He and Dean Wade have been the only two players to give Barnes any fits at all. Speaking of Wade, it was shocking to see him out of the Cleveland starting lineup the last few games. He’s been inconsistent offensively, but has still provided spacing and saved Cleveland defensively.

Wade has a +23 net rating for the Cavs in the postseason, easily the best on the entire team. Max Strus, who replaced him in the starting lineup, has been a -8.3. More specifically, the starting lineup with Strus has been a -19.7, while the one with Wade has been a +30.8. Cleveland ran the lineup with Wade as they made their comeback in game six, so if he’s inserted back in the starting lineup, I think they have a great chance to cover in this one.

Lastly, Toronto’s offense fell incredibly stagnant in game five after Brandon Ingram’s injury. If he’s unable to go in game seven, I can’t see a way they’re able to pull off the upset.

I love Cleveland -8.5 and o211.5 as they will move on to face the winner of Detroit and Orlando.

The Philadelphia 76ers pulled off the upset of the playoffs, knocking off the heavily favored Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the first round 109-100. Boston blew a 3-1 lead in this series and that became another brutal end to a Celtics season.

This core was able to win a finals in 2024, but outside of that important win, Boston has had a lot of disastrous playoff losses that seemingly go under the radar. The Celtics have owned the 76ers over the Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown era, and that makes this loss so much worse.

Of course, Tatum was absent from game seven due to injury, but Joel Embiid was missing for the entire first half of this series, so that feels like a bit of a wash. Not only that, but the Celtics were the two seed with Tatum missing most of the season anyways.

In recent years, the Celtics have now lost to the eight seed Miami Heat in the Conference Finals, got destroyed by the New York Knicks in the Conference Semis last year, had horrible playoff performances in the final two years of the Brad Stevens era to start the 2020s. They were able to win a Finals in a very down year across the board in the NBA, but this team has had let down spots all over the place in the playoffs.

Currently, it feels like the media has put a spotlight on the Cleveland Cavaliers first round struggles against the Toronto Raptors, but at least those struggles are coming in a 4 vs 5 first round matchup. Boston was completely outplayed by the 7-seed Sixers, who were missing their best player most of the series.

Of course VJ Edgecomb and Paul George having great runs as role players helps, and Tyrese Maxey is a full blown super star; however, this series feels like it’s being swept under the rug by the media. Boston got their ring, but I’m starting to think the window from that core is quietly closing. I’m also interested to see how much grace Boston fans will give to head coach Joe Mazulla.

Boston shot themselves out of this series. This is a team that lives and dies by the three, but at some point you need to make an adjustment when shots simply aren’t falling. Not only that, but the Sixers simply just felt like the better team in this series. I don’t think it’s just bad shooting that won Philly this series. They controlled this series and were able to do whatever they wanted against the Celtics.

The Sixers now head to New York to take on the Knicks, where they are far less of an underdog at only +198 to advance. I think this is a bit of a market overcorrection, and I wouldn’t bet on the Sixers to win this series. Boston might’ve just been a bit of an overrated team, that over performed without Tatum.