The Elite Eight has arrived and the one thing we know is that seven of these teams are going to end their season with a loss.

Part of being the last team standing has to do with avoiding the one matchup that can sink you.

We’ve already seen one No. 1 seed (Florida) go down in the second round and two No. 2 seeds (Houston and Iowa State) get ousted in the Sweet 16.

The Gators went down because No. 9 seed Iowa controlled the pace and kept Florida frustrated by holding them without a field goal for 9:23 of the first half. That helped the Hawkeyes assure it would a close game and they ended up receiving the clutch 3-point shot by Alvaro Folgueiras with 4.5 seconds left.

Houston drew its exit interview because its offense was in seclusion and Illinois took advantage. The Cougars shot 34.4% from the field and scored a season-low 55 points and it’s starting to look like Kelvin Sampson can get you to the Sweet 16 but will end up retiring without a championship ring.

Iowa State lost partly because All-American Joshua Jefferson (ankle) was out with an injury. Just as significant was that Tennessee steamrolled the Cyclones 43-22 on the boards.

That leaves us with these Elite Eight matchups: Iowa vs. Illinois, Purdue vs. Arizona, Tennessee vs. Michigan and UConn vs. Duke.

The three teams you want to avoid facing the rest of the way are Michigan, UConn and Purdue.

–Michigan and Arizona have been the best two teams all season and the Wolverines have the look of a champion.

Top-seeded Michigan (34-3) is well-coached by Dusty May, who has all of the answers most nights. The Wolverines plucked him away from Florida Atlantic, a mid-major program May took to the Final Four.

All-American forward Yaxel Lendeborg is the difference-maker for Michigan and his 14.7 scoring average would be higher if he wasn’t surrounded by so much talent. The Wolverines scooped him up from UAB – OK, wait, why was an NBA talent like this at UAB for two seasons?

Michigan has superb depth with eight players averaging more than 7.0 points per game. Four of them average double digits, including Aday Mara (12.0 on 67.4% from the field), stellar improvement from a player known for his defense.

You can sense the headaches Tennessee coach Rick Barnes is having as he tries to figure out how his No. 6 seed Vols are going to notch another upset.

–UConn won back-to-back titles in 2023-24 and the second-seeded Huskies are still a significant threat even though top-seeded Duke is next on the slate.

Of course, the Huskies (32-5) feature star center Alex Karaban, a four-year starter who was a key cog on those championship teams. There is no situation that is going to intimidate Karaban, who has knocked down 236 3-pointers during his career.

UConn has four other players scoring in double digits with the key one being center Tarris Reed Jr. He has averages of 14.2 points, 8.9 rebounds and 2.0 blocks and the Huskies will be hard to beat if he goes on a roll.

Reed had 31 points and 27 rebounds in the first-round victory over Furman, the first time the NCAA Tournament saw a player with 30-plus points and 25-plus rebounds in a game since Houston legend Elvin Hayes did it twice in the 1968 tourney (and he fell one rebound shy of doing it a third time). Anytime your name is mentioned alongside the “Big E,” you’ve done yourself proud.

–Purdue (30-8) seems to have three 10-year veterans in career assists leader Braden Smith and sidekicks Trey Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer. OK, so it’s only been four seasons, but these guys have won 117 games together after Kaufman-Renn’s game-winning tip-in with 1.4 seconds left against Texas on Thursday.

The trio reached the title game as sophomores when the Boilermakers lost to UConn. Purdue also had two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey on that team but fell short and that provides extra fuel for Smith, Kaufman-Renn and Loyer.

The biggest hurdle for Purdue is that Arizona is up next. The other obstacle is … well, the Boilermakers. These guys lost to four unranked teams. Are they really going to knock off the Wildcats and TWO OTHER top teams?

But right now, Purdue is a hot veteran team with seven straight victories. That’s not the kind of team you relish facing in the Elite Eight.

We all know it’s wrong to overreact to Opening Day.

Just because new Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe bashed two homers off the Mets’ Freddy Peralta on Thursday does not mean he will hit more than 300 for the year.

Just because Hall of Fame-bound starter Paul Skenes didn’t make it out of the first inning of the same game does not mean his ERA will be in the 67.50 neighborhood at season’s end.

Small sample sizes are essentially irrelevant in baseball, if not life itself.

However…should we start questioning how pitching in the World Baseball Classic might adversely affect hurlers over the long haul — specifically starters?

Did World Baseball Classic Hurt Starting Pitchers?

The Philadelphia Phillies’ Aaron Nola, on behalf of Team Italy, led all WBC pitchers in innings with nine. He’ll make his 2026 MLB debut Saturday against the Rangers, so we can’t make any snap judgments on him — yet.

Logan Webb, who tossed 8 2/3 innings for Team USA, ranked second in innings for the entire WBC. In his Opening Day start on Wednesday against the New York Yankees, Webb got scuffed up for nine hits and seven runs (six earned) over five innings. He only had three outings like that in his 34 starts last year, so it’s not like he has never does before. But it’s rare.

Skenes went 8 1/3 innings over two outings for Team USA. He didn’t even make it out of the first inning Thursday against the Mets. Yes, Oneil Cruz’s multiple incidents of malpractice in center field did not help matters, but Skenes didn’t exhibit much command. He walked two of the nine Mets he faced and hit a third.

On the flip side, the Detroit Tigers’ Tarik Skubal looked as brilliant as always in his Opening Day start on Thursday. Skubal, who went three innings in his lone WBC outing, breezed through six innings against the San Diego and scattered three hits with six whiffs.

Again, this is all Small Sample Size Theater.

For a larger sample size, let’s take a look at Team USA’s 2023 staff and see how things turned out for them.

Lance Lynn paced Team USA in 2023 with nine innings. He went on to deliver a 5.73 ERA during the 2023 regular season, which was far worse than his 3.99 ERA the year before.

Adam Wainwright produced a 3.71 ERA for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2022. After tossing eight innings for Team USA in the 2023 WBC, he posted an absurd 7.40 ERA in what turned out to be his final season.

Colorado’s Kyle Freeland? He notched a 4.53 ERA in 2022, but that jumped to 5.03 in 2023 after handling six innings for Team USA. St. Louis’ Miles Mikolas? He went from a 3.29 ERA in 2022 to a 4.78 in 2023 with a six-inning WBC interlude.

Again, there’s no comparison in quality between the Lynn/Wainwright/Freeland/Mikolas quartet and Skubal/Skenes/Webb.

At the same time, might there be a cost for asking a lot of your arm three weeks earlier than normal? It’s worth keeping a skeptical eye on Skenes, Webb and Co. as the 2026 season unfolds.