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World Cup quarterfinal best bets: England vs. Norway, Argentina vs. Switzerland

July 1, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, U.S.; England's Harry Kane celebrates scoring their second goal. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn ImagesJuly 1, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, U.S.; England’s Harry Kane celebrates scoring their second goal. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The World Cup quarterfinals conclude with a Saturday doubleheader.

First, Harry Kane and England take on Erling Haaland and Norway in a meeting of two of the world’s best (and tallest) center forwards.

Then, Lionel Messi and Argentina continue their title defense when they meet a sneaky good Switzerland side.

Let’s take a look at our best bets for the twin bill.

England vs. Norway, Anytime Goal Scorer

Both Kane and Haaland have had exceptional tournaments, but only Haaland will be facing a makeshift England rearguard.

Jarell Quansah is serving a two-match ban after his sending off for a violent challenge in the 3-2 win over Mexico.

His fellow center back Marc Guehl is questionable heading into the encounter with a hamstring issue.

And England have conceded to every opponent who mustered even a hint of an attacking threat this tournament, with their two clean sheets coming against an overmatched Panama and a Ghana side content to play a very low block. Even the latter should’ve had a penalty when Esri Konsa’s airborne challenge on Prince Kwabena Adu went unpunished.

It’s not that Kane is unlikely to score here. But Haaland — whose seven goals this tournament have come in just four appearances — is facing more favorable circumstances, despite being at a cheaper price given Norway’s underdog status on the money line. At well better than even money and a 43.5% implied probability, he’s worth backing against an England rear guard that has been far from rigid.

Anytime goal scorer: Erling Haaland (+130, BetRivers)

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England vs. Norway, Exact Team Goals

Norway has scored exactly twice in each of its knockout phase matches, and England has conceded exactly two goals in two of its five games so far.

And that’s a number Norway might be likely to land on again considering the circumstances. With Haaland and Martin Odegaard, they certainly have the quality to be able to solve England’s rearguard.

But the stakes of knockout play make it less likely that the Scandinavians would aggressively hunt for more rather than try to manage the lead.

Two goals might not even be enough to beat this England team, but a wager on that exact Norway total at a 23.8% implied probability is worth a play.

Exact Norway Goals: 2 (+320, theScore)

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Argentina vs. Switzerland, Total Goals

Argentina have looked wobbly in their last two matches, and at first glance thei quarterfinal could be a tempting spot to back an underdog.

But with Switzerland hit with an injury to breakout performer Johan Monzambi, the better play is probably betting on the total to go over 2.5 goals.

Under manager Lionel Scaloni, Argentina have played eight knockout phase matches across two World Cups. The total has gone over during 90 minutes in all but one of those, thanks in no small part to the presence of Lionel Messi, the rare attacker who consistently outperforms expected-goal models.

Meanwhile, Switzerland played a somewhat dour 0-0 draw with Colombia in the round of 16 before triumphing on penalties.

But their lower chance creation and chance allowance numbers are based partly on the teams they’ve played: All three of their group opponents had attacking limitations. Colombia exited the tournament scoring only twice in its last 390 minutes.

Knockout football often gets tighter in the later stages, which is driving the price on the over down. But dynamics in Argentina matches have proven different. Take advantage with a bet on the over at a 43.9% implied probability.

Total over 2.5 goals (+128, Parx)

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Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies bid for bounce-back effort vs. Tigers

Jul 6, 2026; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cristopher Sanchez (61) pitches during the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn ImagesJul 6, 2026; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Cristopher Sanchez (61) pitches during the first inning against the Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Cristopher Sanchez’s Cy Young Award candidacy took a hit in his last start.

The left-hander will try to bounce back when the visiting Philadelphia Phillies face the red-hot Detroit Tigers on Saturday night.

Sanchez was rocked for nine runs and 12 hits in 3 1/3 innings at Kansas City on Monday, raising his ERA from 2.00 to 2.62. Sanchez (10-4) had tossed seven shutout innings against Pittsburgh in his previous outing, his 13th quality start of the season.

Sanchez only recorded one strikeout against the Royals after fanning nine Pirates. However, he said there was nothing wrong with him physically.

“I feel great,” Sanchez said. “That’s why I was a little surprised to have such an outing (Monday), because I feel really good.”

Sanchez had a celebrated 50 2/3 innings scoreless streak earlier this season, so for the 29-year-old left-hander to give up nine runs in one game was stunning.

“I don’t know how to really explain it, but obviously, as long as he’s healthy, he’s going to be fine,” Phillies interim manager Don Mattingly said. “(Monday’s) hopefully one of those you don’t see very often.”

Kansas City, which scored six runs in the first inning, hit three homers off Sanchez’s normally lethal changeup.

“It’s really tough to see that they hit three homers off me with my pitch,” Sanchez said.

In his lone career outing against Detroit, the All-Star picked up the win after scattering five hits over eight shutout innings last season.

He’ll be opposed by right-hander Casey Mize (4-5, 2.64), who has won his last two starts. Mize blanked the New York Yankees for seven innings while notching 10 strikeouts on June 29, then held Texas to two runs in 6 2/3 innings on Sunday.

“I don’t think I executed my best, but I was still able to go get 20 outs,” said Mize, who struck out 10 batters in 4 1/3 innings but lost his only career outing against Philadelphia.

“The defense played great behind me, and offensively, they put up plenty. So it kind of allowed me just to settle in and try to attack the strike zone and go from there, even when I wasn’t at my best.”

Mize, who will be a free agent after this season, could be dealt this month if the Tigers choose to go into “sell mode” before the trade deadline.

That won’t happen if Detroit keeps piling up wins. The Tigers have won six straight and nine of their last 10, including a 10-2 series-opening victory on Friday. They have outscored opponents 35-9 during their current streak.

“We were playing bad baseball and that isn’t us. I knew eventually we’d get back to us,” said infielder Colt Keith, who hit one of the Tigers’ three homers on Friday.

“It’s a long season and a lot of guys in the clubhouse kept their heads up and just kept working.”

The Phillies have lost four of their last six games. In their last three defeats, their vaunted pitching staff has given up double-digit runs.

The series will conclude on Sunday with another marquee pitching matchup between the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler and the Tigers’ Tarik Skubal.

–Field Level Media

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Seeking home series win, Orioles ride momentum into rematch vs. Royals

Jul 10, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA;  Baltimore Orioles designated hitter Samuel Basallo (29) celebrates as he runs to first base after hitting a two-run home run in the eighth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-Imagn ImagesJul 10, 2026; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Orioles designated hitter Samuel Basallo (29) celebrates as he runs to first base after hitting a two-run home run in the eighth inning against the Kansas City Royals at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images

The last two times the Baltimore Orioles opened a home series with a victory, in June, they lost the next two games.

They’ll try to reverse that trend when they have a rematch with the Kansas City Royals on Saturday night.

Baltimore rode Samuel Basallo’s two-run homer in the eighth inning to Friday night’s 5-3 victory. His two-handed bat throw toward the Orioles’ dugout became part of the celebration.

“That’s me having fun right there,” Basallo said. “Obviously a big moment; we’re enjoying that right there.”

The Orioles need more outcomes like that.

“We’ve been fighting, competing, sticking together,” Basallo said. “But we just trust that things are going to get better and start going our way here soon.”

Royals first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino was back with the team to begin the series after a stint on the injured list with a hand injury. He wasn’t used in Friday’s game.

“We obviously wouldn’t do it if I didn’t feel comfortable or they didn’t feel comfortable,” Pasquantino said of returning to the active roster following this week’s rehabilitation stint with Triple-A Omaha. “It’s one of those things where I think I can help this team win, and I’m going to do whatever I can to do my part.”

Pasquantino, a left-handed batter, was considered available for late-inning duty in the series opener. But manager Matt Quatraro chose to allow Salvador Perez, who was the first baseman, to bat with one out in the ninth representing the potential tying run against right-handed reliever Andrew Kittredge.

Perez fouled out to the catcher.

Still, Quatraro said Pasquantino can make an impact that’s needed for the Royals.

“He set his goal really early to get back before the All-Star break, and he had to do a lot of hard work to get here,” Quatraro said. “It’s nice to have him back. … He hasn’t been facing major league pitching every day, so we’ll see what the results are. We’ll see how his body reacts.”

Left-hander Noah Cameron (5-6, 4.77 ERA) will start for the Royals on Saturday.

After four consecutive rough outings, he’s coming off a solid effort and picked up the victory Monday against the Philadelphia Phillies, 15-1, after allowing one run on six hits across five innings. That marked only the third time in Cameron’s last 12 starts that the Royals won the game.

This will be Cameron’s first career matchup against the Orioles.

The Orioles will send right-hander Kyle Bradish (5-9, 3.75 ERA) to the mound. He’ll try to avoid becoming this year’s first 10-game loser in the majors, although he has the most wins among pitchers with nine losses.

Bradish had a peculiar outing at Kansas City on April 20, when he allowed 10 hits and three walks in 5 1/3 innings but gave up only one run in a no-decision. That was his only career outing vs. the Royals. The Orioles won the game 7-5 in 12 innings.

–Field Level Media

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Rangers focused on rival Astros with All-Star break looming

Jul 10, 2026; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers second baseman Justin Fescue (14) and shortstop Ezequiel Duran (20) celebrate turning a double play to end the game against the Houston Astros at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn ImagesJul 10, 2026; Arlington, Texas, USA; Texas Rangers second baseman Justin Fescue (14) and shortstop Ezequiel Duran (20) celebrate turning a double play to end the game against the Houston Astros at Globe Life Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

At the very least, the Texas Rangers ensured on Friday that the Houston Astros wouldn’t bypass them in the American League West standings prior to the All-Star Game break.

The Rangers turned a four-run eighth inning into a 7-3 victory over the Astros in the opener of a three-game series between division rivals, and opened a three-game lead over Houston with two games left to play in the unofficial first half. Had the Astros swept the series, they would have entered the break a game up on the Rangers.

“As far as I’m concerned, we’re starting playoff baseball in July,” said Rangers first baseman Jake Burger, whose three-run home run capped the four-run frame. “Every game, backs against the wall, and go out there and give it our all.

“Great team win, and keep that momentum going (on Saturday).”

Right-hander Kumar Rocker (2-7, 3.95 ERA) is scheduled to start the second game of the series for the Rangers. He is 0-2 with a 5.30 ERA over his last four appearances and three starts, with 22 strikeouts against four walks in 18 2/3 innings. Rocker has dropped two consecutive starts at home and is 0-5 with a 4.70 ERA in his last eight starts at Globe Life Field in Arlington.

Rocker will make his second career start against the Astros. He allowed four runs on four hits and two walks with five strikeouts in a 9-0 home loss to Houston on May 25.

Right-hander Peter Lambert (7-5, 3.26 ERA) has Houston’s starting assignment on Saturday as the Astros attempt to even the series. He carried a shutout into the sixth inning of a 2-0 win over the Tampa Bay Rays last Sunday, allowing three hits and one walk with six strikeouts in 5 2/3 innings. Lambert is 5-1 with a 3.02 ERA over his last eight starts. Houston has won six of those games.

Lambert is 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA in two career appearances (one start) against the Rangers. He allowed five runs on three hits and two walks with six strikeouts across six innings in an 8-0 loss to Texas on May 17.

Following a rough series in Washington for their starting pitching, the Astros were hopeful that ace right-hander Hunter Brown could find his footing in the series opener against the Rangers. And while Brown was credited with a quality start after allowing three runs on four hits with four strikeouts over six innings, he issued five walks and labored for most of his 98-pitch outing.

It marked the fifth start for Brown since being reinstated from the injured list, where he spent two-plus months with a right shoulder strain. He has yet to regain the form that resulted in a top-3 finish in AL Cy Young voting last season, with Brown posting a 4.74 ERA in those starts.

Given the inconsistency of their rotation, the Astros will need Brown to reclaim his ace status sooner rather than later.

“I think stuff-wise, he’s good,” Astros manager Joe Espada said of Brown. “Now, command, maybe it’s going to take a little bit of time. But I think (this) is a perfect example of when he gets going, he starts getting quick innings and gives you those six innings, and he gives you an opportunity to win the game.

“That’s what good pitchers do once they get rolling. They start feeling their pitches, and they start executing. It was a good example of he felt good after he made an adjustment during the game and gave us six quality innings.”

–Field Level Media

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