Happy Friday!

I’ve got a couple pitcher props for my MLB picks today as we head into what looks like a gorgeous weather weekend (at least here in the northeast).

Twins at Pirates

Jared Jones Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+131 DraftKings)

The Pirates are having their best season in a decade thanks mostly to their top-end pitching, and they get another excellent starter back tonight. Jones will make his first appearance since 2024 as he gets the ball vs. the Twins. He tossed 121 IP in the majors in ‘24, with a 26.2% K% and 14.1% SwStr% and his skills look fully back. It’s just a question of endurance. In his 18.1 IP of rehab across three levels, Jones had a 32.9% K% and 15.5% SwSwr%. He faced 18 batters each in his last two starts so ideally he’ll increase that a shade and get through 5 IP.

He faces a Twins team that is one of the easier groups in MLB to whiff. They have the 5th highest K% in the league vs. righties at 23.3% and the 6th highest on the road at 24.6%

Giants at Rockies

Logan Webb Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110 FanDuel)

OK how about a double shot of SP’s back from the IL? In this case it’s a much briefer stay as Webb last pitched on May 5th. He’s had a generally challenging bad season with an uncharacteristically ugly 5.06 ERA and 1.40 WHIP plus he heads to Coors Field which is never fun. But he should be fine to give us some length here as it wasn’t a long layoff and he’s averaged exactly 6 innings and 7 strikeouts in his 8 starts. What’s more he’s K’ed at least 5 hitters in 6 of those starts. So again, it’s a number he should reach if he goes anywhere close to his normal length.

The Rockies offense is just plain bad, even in their launching pad. They have a 77 wRC+ which is 2nd worst in MLB, and their unadjusted home wOBA of .321 that’s midpack and their K% of 22.3% is the 9th worst mark in the league. I’m cautiously optimistic Webb’s break will do him a world of good and I’m going to roll with him here.

After a successful visit in November 2024 – which was their first in 10 years – the Octagon will land back in Macau, China, for UFC Macau on May 30.

The main event will feature a bantamweight battle between China’s Song Yadong and Deiveson Figueiredo.

Yadong has won three of his last five fights; however, he enters this bout off a loss to Sean O’Malley at UFC 324 in January. Figueiredo, meanwhile, is 4-3 since moving up to bantamweight. The former flyweight champion, however, has lost three of his last four, most recently falling to Umar Nurmagomedov at UFC 324.

The co-main event will feature Zhang Mingyang taking on Alonzo Menifield in light heavyweight action. Mingyang most recently fought in August at UFC Shanghai, losing to Johnny Walker. That loss was Mingyang’s first in the UFC and snapped a 12-fight win streak. Menifield has won five of his last eight but was most recently knocked out by Volkan Oezdemir at UFC Qatar in November.

The UFC Macau main card will also feature Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira, Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman, Jake Matthews vs. Carlston Harris, and Alex Perez vs. Su Mudaerji.

SONG YADONG VS DEIVESON FIGUEIREDO

If there’s one thing to appreciate about Song Yadong, it’s his striking. With his Sanda foundation, Yadong has developed strong kickboxing skills, and he will look to use those to try and pressure Figueiredo into a war. Yadong has some strength to his strikes and has the cardio for a war; however, Figueiredo’s counterstriking can still be dangerous if he’s not careful.

Figueiredo’s grappling can be a problem for Yadong if he’s not careful. He’ll have to make use of his takedown defense abilities (a 73% takedown defense rate, per UFC Stats) to avoid giving positioning and control, as well as submission opportunities, to Figueiredo. This should be a fight that lasts either way.

BET: Yadong vs. Figueiredo to go the distance (Caesars: +100)

ZHANG MINGYANG VS ALONZO MENIFIELD

August’s UFC Shanghai was supposed to be a coming-out party for Zhang Mingyang, who has proven himself to be a solid up-and-coming contender in the light heavyweight division. Mingyang, however, was finished solidly by Johnny Walker, halting Mingyang’s upward momentum. This fight gives Mingyang the chance to show he’s still got contender potential.

Mingyang is the master of the first-round finish. Simply put, if Alonzo Menifield can be defensive and wear Mingyang down over the first round, he’s in a much stronger position to win. At 38 years old, however, it’s hard to imagine Menifield going five full minutes without getting tagged. And it’s hard to imagine Mingyang dropping a pair of consecutive fights, especially if he slugs the way he wants to.

BET: Mingyang via KO/TKO in Round 1 (FanDuel: +160)

KAI ASAKURA VS CAMERON SMOTHERMAN

There were interesting options for a third best bet. As we’ve seen though, however, heavyweight fights can be volatile to pick, and some of the underdog plays on this card are a little harder to read. So, let’s talk about Kai Asakura.

Asakura came into the UFC as a highly promoted talent and former RIZIN champion; however, he hasn’t lived up to the billing thus far. A loss to Alexandre Pantoja in a title fight in your UFC debut? Acceptable. Losing (with all due respect to him) to 39-year-old Tim Elliott in a fight Asaukra was a heavy favorite? Yikes. Now, Asakura moves up to bantamweight, hoping to show that a less drastic weight cut will do wonders for him – and he needs to hope this.

Asakura has more experience and a stronger resume than his 12-6 opponent, Cameron Smotherman, who is 1-2 in the UFC. Asakura is the better all-around fighter, so the fight falls on him. The more he avoids a brawl and the better he is defensively, the stronger the chance he goes home with a win. A loss here, however, and it smells like the end of an insanely disappointing UFC run.

BET: Asakura to win via KO/TKO OR decision (FanDuel: -240)

Talor Gooch surged into the lead at LIV Golf Korea with a 7-under 63 in the second round Friday at Asiad Country Club in Busan, South Korea.

Gooch carded eight birdies — six on the front nine — and a lone bogey at the par-4 fifth hole to move to 8-under, one stroke ahead of Bryson DeChambeau. It is the eighth time the OKGC captain has shot 63 or better in LIV Golf and the seventh time he has held the 36-hole lead.

A four-time winner on the tour, Gooch chipped in for a birdie on his second hole, the par-4 ninth, and birdied six of his last eight holes.

“The game still doesn’t feel great, but we’re working hard, and we’re working in the right direction,” said Gooch, who entered the week ranked 29th in points but could climb to fifth with a win. “… Hopefully we can just kind of keep it going and get this train rolling.”

First-round co-leader DeChambeau is alone at 7-under after shooting 68 on Friday, finishing with three birdies and a bogey. The Crushers GC captain hit only eight of 14 fairways and 10 of 18 greens in regulation.

“My putting saved me today,” DeChambeau said. “I felt like I was hitting it really well yesterday, driving it well, and today just kind of went sideways.”

DeChambeau is looking for his third win of the LIV Golf season after missing the cut at the PGA Championship earlier this month. He is one of the few big hitters having a strong start at what Gooch called a “shot-maker’s course.”

“It’s a testament to how great of a golfer Bryson is to be able to play bomber’s paradises and then this course is a little bit more of a shot-maker’s course,” Gooch said. “It’s a fun course, and it’s just another example that a course doesn’t have to be 8,000 yards to be a good test.”

Five golfers are tied for third at 5-under, including Ripper GC Captain Cameron Smith of Australia (68 on Friday) and Torque GC captain Joaquin Niemann (69) of Chile. Belgium’s Thomas Pieters (69), Zimbabwe’s Scott Vincent (70) and Charles Howell III (70) also are in that group.

Korean GC’s Doyeob Mun (68) is tied for eighth place at 4-under with Fireballs GC captain Sergio Garcia (69) of Spain.

Gooch’s OKGC leads the team standings at 14-under, one shot ahead of DeChambeau’s Crushers and three clear of Ripper GC.

–Field Level Media