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Best 12 vs 5 NCAA Tournament Upset Picks for 2026 March Madness

Jan 27, 2026; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores guard Tyler Tanner (3) reacts after a made three point basket against the Kentucky Wildcats during the second half at Memorial Gymnasium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn ImagesJan 27, 2026; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores guard Tyler Tanner (3) reacts after a made three point basket against the Kentucky Wildcats during the second half at Memorial Gymnasium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

The 12 versus 5 matchup in the tournament is always the trendy upset pick, but that might not be the case this season. 

The five seeds look very strong, while the twelve seeds will be fighting a steeper up hill climbin than usual. With that being said, five seeds have only gone undefeated five times since 2000, so having one upset on your bracket is probably a smart call. 

Here are the twelve seeds that I think have the best chance to play Cinderella in the first round.

#12 UNI (+470) vs #5 St. John’s -10.5

St. John’s is a dark-horse final-four team on a lot of brackets at the moment. The Big East champions, led by Rick Pitino, play a completely different brand of basketball from UNI. St John’s is going to speed the game up by applying full-court pressure and creating turnovers and extra possessions on offensive rebounds. The Panthers, on the other hand, play at the third-slowest tempo in the nation and the slowest of any team in the tournament.

In March, if you can limit the total number of possessions in a game, while shooting efficiently, you’ve got a great chance of pulling off an upset. UNI shot 41% from three over their four-game run through the Missouri Valley Conference to steal the conference as the 6 seed. St John’s played some of their best basketball in the Big East tournament, but we saw that happen last season, and then the Johnnies faltered out early, when they weren’t able to speed up the game in the tournament. 

Too many people have St. John’s going on a deep run when they should be far more worried about this first-round matchup.

#12 Akron (+260) vs #5 Texas Tech -7.5

Mar 7, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Christian Anderson (4) reacts to a made three point shot during the second half against the BYU Cougars at Marriott Center. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn ImagesMar 7, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Christian Anderson (4) reacts to a made three point shot during the second half against the BYU Cougars at Marriott Center. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

Akron is one of the trendy 12 seeds this season. They’re a veteran team, making their third straight appearance in the tournament, while Texas Tech can be a great team, but their ceiling feels very limited with the injury to their leader, JT Toppin.

The Zips have been a bit of a KenPom darling all season long. 

They had been the highest-ranked MAC team despite losing to undefeated Miami in the regular season. Akron and Texas Tech have the closest margin in KenPom ratings among the 12 vs 5 games because Akron has been such an efficient offense all season. They shoot threes at 38.5% and can keep pace with a Texas Tech team that scores 80 points per game. The only reason I don’t have this in my No. 1 slot is Texas Tech’s defense. 

Their entire game plan relies on them preventing threes, and if Tavari Johnson and Shammah Scott struggle to generate offense in the paint, the Red Raiders could beat up on an off-shooting Zips squad.

#12 High Point (+390) vs #5 Wisconsin -10.5

Mar 7, 2026; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard Nick Boyd (2) drives to the basket during the first half against the Purdue Boilermakers at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jacob Musselman-Imagn ImagesMar 7, 2026; West Lafayette, Indiana, USA; Wisconsin Badgers guard Nick Boyd (2) drives to the basket during the first half against the Purdue Boilermakers at Mackey Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jacob Musselman-Imagn Images

Unlike the first two games mentioned, I would be very shocked to see upsets in these next two games. Similar to Akron, High Point is a popular upset pick this season. Everyone is looking at their 30-4 record and 10th-ranked offense in the nation in points per game, and believes they can pull off the upset. I don’t think there’s much of a chance that happens.

High Point is going to shoot a ton of threes and try to turn you over, but I think that plays right into Wisconsin’s strengths. 

Nick Boyd is one of the best guards in the country, and the exact type of player you want leading your team in the tournament. He averaged 25 points a night in the Big 10 tournament, and 6 times. He’s the type of player Wisconsin can look to in big moments to control the game score at will against a bad Panthers defense. There’s a reason the largest discrepancy of KenPom ratings comes from these two in the twelve versus five round. The Badgers are a very solid team, and if they had Nolan Winter, they would have been a dark-horse Final Four team for me. Still, I definitely like them here in the round of 64.

McNeese St (+520) vs Vanderbilt -11.5

Maybe I’m still too caught up on the horrible performance McNeese St had in the tournament last season, but I don’t think they have any chance to pull this upset off. Vanderbilt is one of the most underseeded teams in March Madness, but they were paired with a Cowboys team that they match up exceedingly well with.

I don’t love it when underdogs need to rely on turnovers to win games in March. The Cowboys have a surprisingly efficient defense (41st in the country) but an offense that barely makes it into the top 100. I also don’t love an efficient small-conference defense that can’t translate that same level of success when they play against a team as strong as Vanderbilt. The Commodores have such great guard play with Duke Miles and Tyler Tanner, and I don’t see them turning the ball over enough to keep McNeese St in this. I love Vanderbilt in this game at -11.5, and I also don’t mind them as a Final Four team at +1100.

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Yankees to honor late broadcaster John Sterling with uniform patch

MLB: Baltimore Orioles at New York YankeesMay 4, 2026; Bronx, New York, USA; New York Yankees wear “JS” stitched on their hats honoring radio play-by-play announcer John Sterling during the game against the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The New York Yankees will honor longtime radio announcer John Sterling, who died on Monday at the age of 87, with a patch on their uniforms for the reminder of the season.

The Yankees will continue to wear caps with the initials “JS” on the back through May 17. The team will switch to the patch as their tribute to Sterling on May 18, when the Yankees’ next homestand begins.

Yankees manager Aaron Boone approves of the tribute.

“I think it’s appropriate, certainly,” Boone told the New York Times after the Yanks’ 7-4 victory over the Texas Rangers. “(I’m) glad we’ll be able to honor his legacy throughout the rest of the season.”

The patch will feature Sterling’s name, as well as a microphone with the Yankee logo on a pinstriped background.

Sterling passed away from complications of heart failure on Monday, the Times reported. Sterling was honored prior to Monday’s game with a ceremony that featured a moment of silence and a video of some of Sterling’s most iconic radio calls.

After Monday’s game, Sterling’s signature call of “Thuuuuuuuuuuh Yankees WIN!” was played over the PA system at Yankee Stadium, followed by Frank Sinatra’s “Theme from New York, New York.”

Both manager Boone and Yankees captain Aaron Judge called for making that combo a permanent tradition. But Sterling’s call was not part of Tuesday’s post-game victory celebration, and it was unclear if the team intends to continue it, the Times reported.

Count Jazz Chisholm Jr. among those who feel the patch is a good way to honor Sterling this season.

“He was here for a long time,” said Chisholm. “He represented the Yankees well. We all, in our childhood, have that John Sterling call rising in our ears. I think it’s pretty cool that we, as a team and organization, get to recognize him for all the great things that he’s done here.”

–Field Level Media

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MLB Panic Meter: Mets, Red Sox, Angels Among Biggest Early Concerns

May 4, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; New York Mets left fielder Juan Soto (22) during the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn ImagesMay 4, 2026; Denver, Colorado, USA; New York Mets left fielder Juan Soto (22) during the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The season isn’t one-fourth complete, meaning it’s relatively early by MLB standards.

But it’s also time for concern for a spate of underachieving teams and players to be calibrated against the potential for a rebound.

Here’s our look at some particularly worrisome slow starts around the game.

1. The New York Mets

David Stearns’ nonsensical off-season overhaul — dumping a spate of franchise icons all in the name of improving the defense by signing or moving a bunch of people to positions they’d never played — left the Mets in a much more vulnerable position than any team should be with a $352 million payroll. But it shouldn’t be going THIS badly, even with Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor playing just seven full games together due to their calf injuries. 

At least the Mets no longer have the worst record in the bigs after winning three of four from the Los Angeles Angels and Colorado Rockies. But when you’ve got to win three of four from the Angels and Rockies just to escape the basement.

2. The Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies

May 1, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Jarren Duran (16) runs the bases after hitting a three-run home run against the Houston Astros during the third inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn ImagesMay 1, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox left fielder Jarren Duran (16) runs the bases after hitting a three-run home run against the Houston Astros during the third inning at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-Imagn Images

The 2-for-1, you-both-got-your-managers-fired deal here. As with the Mets, the off-season should have provided more of a hint that the Red Sox (who didn’t re-sign valuable veteran leader Alex Bregman) and Phillies (who re-signed every aging veteran this side of Steve Jeltz) might stumble out of the gates. A 4-0 start under interim manager Don Mattingly served as a reminder the Phillies have an immeasurable edge of the Red Sox in terms of postseason-tested players and, especially, competent upper management. Boston’s geniuses apparently thought it’d be a good idea to toss Triple-A manager Chad Tracy into a locker room filled with angry players. Hard to believe “chief baseball officer” Craig Breslow actually played in the majors.

3. The Los Angeles Angels

May 5, 2026; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout (27) is greeted after hitting a solo home run against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn ImagesMay 5, 2026; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout (27) is greeted after hitting a solo home run against the Chicago White Sox during the first inning at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

We should all be immune to being disappointed by the Angels, who have the longest playoff drought in the majors as well as the longest streak of consecutive sub-.500 finishes despite employing both Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout from 2018 through 2023. 

But the American League is a mashup of mediocrity and Trout is enjoying a renaissance season, so it wouldn’t take much for the Angels to at least hover around the fringes of contention. So of course they’ve lost 13 of 15 to fall to 13-23, which is the worst record in the bigs and puts the Angels on pace to lose 100 games for the first time ever. So there is that.

4. Willy Adames and Rafael Devers, San Francisco Giants SS/1B

Buster Posey’s weird plan to construct a contender around a bunch of singles hitters was always contingent on Adames, the one Giants position player star who chose to play in hitter-unfriendly Oracle Park, and Devers, a blockbuster trade addition last year, providing the token bit of power. 

But the duo have combined for just five homers and rank 161st and 163rd, respectively, in OPS at .579 and .572 as the Giants have started 14-21. Adames’ poor strikeout-to-walk ratio — he’s struck out 45 times while drawing just six walks — is a big red flag after he increased his walk total each of the previous three seasons.

5. Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds P

Jun 10, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott (41) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn ImagesJun 10, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott (41) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-Imagn Images

Abbott outperformed his peripherals (a 2.87 ERA but a 3.66 FIP) while making the All-Star team for the first time last season. But the market correction has been unforgiving for Abbott, whose 5.97 ERA is seventh-worst in the NL amongst pitchers who have thrown at least 30 innings. He is also striking out just 6.2 batters per nine innings, easily the lowest figure of his career and a concerning trend as the Reds bank on a bounce-back.

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Should the Celtics Blow It Up? Analyzing Every Major Option

Feb 28, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens before their game against the Cleveland Cavaliers at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-Imagn ImagesFeb 28, 2025; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Celtics president of basketball operations Brad Stevens before their game against the Cleveland Cavaliers at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-Imagn Images

Everyone seems to have an opinion on how to “fix” the Celtics.

You’ll probably not be surprised to hear I have a few myself. OK, more than just a few.

Raising a 7-foot bar on a bunch of wishful thinking among Celtics fans and senseless knee-jerk reactions among the unfaithful, here’s where I stand on some of the more popular suggestions:

Fire Brad Stevens.

Let’s get the most ridiculous one out of the way.

Stevens was NBA Executive of the Year this year for a reason. He did the seemingly impossible (or so Golden State tells us) … He got rid of a bunch of overpaid veterans, remained competitive even without Jayson Tatum for the most part, and restructured a roster that should be able to compete for Eastern titles for most of the next decade.

Fire him? I say: Reward him.

Fire Joe Mazzulla.

He did such a great job during the regular season, he set himself up for a hard fall in the playoffs. And even at that, you have to wonder what might have happened had Tatum not contracted a case of Embiid-itis.

Did he mismanage the Philadelphia series? Sure. The Pistons would have fired their coach if he’d done that. Maybe even the Knicks and Cavaliers. But they haven’t won a title, made the Finals twice and been a perennial contender for the better part of a decade.

Based on the improbable regular season alone, Mazz deserves the benefit of the doubt. But don’t let it happen again.

Trade Derrick White.

On the surface, this one makes sense. As the 76ers series demonstrated, the Celtics could use a Robert Williams III type more than a White type. But that’s what Stevens, in a rare blunder, thought when he exchanged Anfernee Simons for Nikola Vucevic.

Look at the Eastern Conference. When Joel Embiid isn’t playing – which is most of the time – the top players are almost all guards: Cade Cunningham, Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, Tyrese Haliburton … You need somebody to slow them down.

Yeah, the Celtics could move Jaylen Brown fulltime to the backcourt, but that likely would force Tatum to actually have to guard somebody. Giving Brown the tough frontcourt assignments allows Tatum to freelance, grab cheap rebounds and stay fresh for his late barrage of missed 3-pointers. Wait, that was supposed to be a positive.

Trading White maybe gets you Wendell Carter Jr., but does that make you better? I say: Just bigger.

Trade Jaylen Brown.

May 2, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey (0) talks with Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7)after Philadephia’s win in game seven of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-Imagn ImagesMay 2, 2026; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey (0) talks with Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7)after Philadephia’s win in game seven of the first round of the 2026 NBA Playoffs at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-Imagn Images

Let’s be honest: Breaking up the Brown/Tatum tandem would take a lot of guts. But after watching the Celtics play without Tatum for two-thirds of last season, it’s at least worth considering.

So which one gets shopped? That depends what type of team you want.

We’ve seen what the Celtics look like without Tatum – energetic, defensive-minded and all-inclusive on offense. And that’s without whatever high-level player or players you would get by trading Tatum.

You turn Brown into, say, Naz Reid and Terrence Shannon Jr., and you improve defensively on the interior and offensively on the perimeter. But you lose what made the Celtics so fun to watch this season – the team’s best defender and emotional leader.

I’d keep Brown.

Trade Jayson Tatum.

It might take just one call to turn the Celtics into the Eastern frontrunner again …

Stevens: If we give you Tatum for Giannis, how many first-round picks would you want?

Bucks GM Jon Horst: Let me get back to you on that.

If the response is anything you can count on one hand, the Celtics’ off-season is complete.

Tatum has done a lot of good things for this team, but he’s not in Giannis’ league. Few players are.

The Celtics would get their interior force, a runner who would allow the team to pick up the pace and another elite shot-blocker who would make Boston the most well-rounded defensive force in the league, with White shadowing star little guys, Brown locked onto mid-sized scorers and Giannis pitching a tent in the middle.

Stop dreaming? OK, then I’d settle for Domantas Sabonis and De’Andre Hunter.

Stand pat.

Stevens earned a nice, long vacation. Maybe he should take one.

No phones. See you in October with the same pieces that made the Celtics the favorite in the Eastern playoffs. Even with Tatum at less than 100 percent.

After all, it ain’t broke.

Unless, of course: Brad, this is Horstie getting back to you …

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