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MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies, April 29th

Gavin Williams cost us in more ways than one last night. Not only did his poor performance down our Twins-Guardians under to snap the latest winning streak, but he also accumulated only two Ks in the process. And remember, Williams’ over 129.5 strikeouts bet for the season is our biggest futures wager. Let’s just focus on the new day and hopefully spring the beginnings of another win streak.

Such efforts will be cast from Citizens Bank Park in the City of Brotherly Love, where the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies begin a three-game series. The opener is definitely one that sticks out, being that it’s an Opening Day rematch.

Yes, Zack Wheeler and MacKenzie Gore are getting set to face off once more. This will be the fourth lifetime meeting between the two aces — including their aforementioned most recent date on March 27 — and strangely, the over hit in the first three.

Maybe that’s why the oddsmakers opted for the surprising decision of tabbing this next encounter with a total of 8.5. Wheeler home games rarely draw an over/under this high, and for comparison’s sake, he just had a start opposite Kyle Freeland of the Colorado Rockies in this same ballpark with a 7.5 total. The Nationals’ lineup might be a bit superior to that of Colorado, but unquestionably not enough to create a full-run difference between that contest and the one we’ve set our sights on.

Plus, although the first three matchups featuring these two pitchers went over, it had very little to do with what each of them showcased. For instance, this year’s Opening Day bout finished 7-3 despite both Gore and Wheeler combining to allow only one total run in 12 combined innings. That game only went over because of bad bullpen work — not to mention needing extra innings to do so.

So, we’ll throw that outcome history out the window and simply gauge what’s to come tonight — most likely a pair of solid outings from two of the best arms the National League has to offer.

To no one’s surprise, Wheeler is out to another pleasant start this year. While his 3.62 ERA may not be his usual strong mark, keep in mind that he’s also registered a standout 2.28 xERA (expected earned run average), meaning he’s pitched considerably better than what his official ERA might suggest. In addition, Wheeler’s clocking in with the highest strikeout rate of his 13 years in the big leagues (12.1 K/9) while also maintaining a 1.02 WHIP and .217 batting average against.

The 34-year-old is doing just fine, folks, and can be considered as dominant as he’s ever been.

On top of that, Wheeler gets a home assignment in this one and that’s always significant given his numbers when pitching in the City of Brotherly Love. In 82 starts at Citizens Bank Park (including playoffs and his stint with the New York Mets), the former first-round draft pick is an absurd 39-14 with a 2.61 ERA and 0.94 WHIP.

Through six starts this season, Wheeler’s counterpart this evening, Gore, has spun similar excellence. He’s pitched into the sixth inning or deeper each time out and has a nifty 3.34 ERA and 1.14 WHIP to show for it. Both marks would go down as career bests for the fourth-year southpaw if they end around there. Furthermore, he leads the league with 53 strikeouts (interestingly, Wheeler is second with 50).

Gore is clearly on a trajectory toward his first All-Star Game appearance, and something else that can help his cause on this night is the success he’s had against this opponent. Of course, the Phillies boast one of the more potent batting orders, but Gore has done more than hold his own in these matchups. Philly’s big six of Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Alec Bohm and J.T. Realmuto are a combined 33-for-123 (.268) with 39 strikeouts versus Gore.

In other words, the left-hander is punching out those six upper-echelon hitters just about once every three ABs across a fairly large sample size. That’s pretty notable.

The over/under being as high as it is means that simply one strong showing from either starter can do the trick, so long as the other doesn’t get knocked around. I’ll gladly be betting on that.

Pick: Under 8.5 (-115, DraftKings)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 21-17-1, +0.54 unit
Over/Unders: 18-12-1
Props: 3-4
MLs: 0-1
Yesterday’s Result: Twins-Guardians under 8.5 (loss)

Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise indicated.

Follow me on X (formerly Twitter) @MattZylbert for potential additional picks.

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A'ja Wilson has no shortage of motivation after Aces' early exit in '24

WNBA: Playoffs-Las Vegas Aces at New York LibertyOct 1, 2024; Brooklyn, New York, USA; Las Vegas Aces center A’ja Wilson (22) and New York Liberty forward Breanna Stewart (30) during game two of the 2024 WNBA Semi-finals at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

LAS VEGAS — Entering her eighth season in the WNBA, Las Vegas Aces superstar A’ja Wilson is poised to build on what was arguably the most dominant individual campaign in league history.

Wilson joined Cynthia Cooper (1997) as the second player in league history to win a unanimous MVP award and joined an exclusive club as the fourth player to win the award three times. She averaged 26.9 points and 11.9 rebounds per game last season and set the all-time single-season mark for points (1,021) and rebounds (451).

Unfortunately for Las Vegas, injuries and fatigue from their two previous championship runs mounted and resulted in the team’s worst regular-season record (27-13) since 2019. The Aces’ three-peat hopes ended with a 76-62 home loss to the New York Liberty to drop their semifinal series 3-1.

It’s that loss on her home floor that served as Wilson’s motivation this offseason.

“Losing sucks, especially on your home court,” Wilson said “It still kind of burns a little bit, but I’ve used that as fuel to help my teammates understand how hard it is to win in this league. Yes, we can celebrate the two championships. They were great. But for us to move forward, we have to understand how hard this league is and value the basketball and the little things. I think that’s what we lacked last season, so we’re going to make sure that we can show up better than we did.”

While the Aces appeared to be on top of the world heading into their potential three-peat campaign in 2024, the reality inside the locker room was that both the internal and external pressure to win another championship had become suffocating. A common theme across media day was the fact that the team feels less pressure entering the 2025 season, a sentiment Wilson shared as the unquestioned leader of the team.

“(Three-peat talks) obviously impacted us, because it’s like, y’all think we don’t want to win? We’re trying as well,” Wilson said.

“I would definitely say it’s refreshing this year. I feel like this is one of my only years where it feels like there’s no weight. There’s a lot of weight to be defending champs. It’s a lot of weight to be trying to win one. We don’t have that. We actually have a clean slate to really dial into getting back to who we are culturally, like, in our system and everything.”

Leading the Aces back to the top of the mountain for a third time in four years is one of a few historically significant achievements Wilson can collect this upcoming season. Wilson could also become the first four-time MVP in league history, though the meaning of that is something she hasn’t quite allowed herself to ponder yet.

“I haven’t given it much thought, but it would be a blessing to have my name in that conversation,” Wilson said. “Every year, I try to be better than I was the year before just to give myself a chance in this league. Because the league is getting better. We’re growing. At this point, you just want to maintain your stamina. You want to maintain your mental, all of that, because the season gets hard. I can’t think too much about that just yet, but I’m definitely going to try to be better than I was last year.”

As Aces coach Becky Hammon put it, fans can expect to see an even better version of Wilson this season.

“What I see is, she went and got better,” Hammon said. “Which is hard to do when you’re already the best, but it speaks to her work ethic, her desire and her mindset this whole offseason. We talked a lot this offseason. She’s a busy lady, but I can tell you what she always does is her workouts. She’s always getting her workouts in. That comes first and foremost, she never gets her priorities jumbled up.”

When Hammon was asked what a player like Wilson would possibly need to improve after last season’s campaign, the coach did not feel like revealing too much.

“There was (something for Wilson to improve), and she did,” Hammon said. “I’m not going to tell you what it was. Actually, there were two things.”

–Will Despart, Field Level Media

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Jacob Wilson joins Aaron Judge in spotlight for Yankees-A's series

MLB: Seattle Mariners at AthleticsMay 5, 2025; West Sacramento, California, USA; Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson (5) throws to first for an out against the Seattle Mariners during the seventh inning at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Lee-Imagn Images

The top two hitters in the majors square off Friday night when the New York Yankees face the Athletics in the opener of a three-game series in Sacramento, Calif.

It’s no surprise to see Yankees star Aaron Judge off to a superb start after winning American League MVP honors last season. He has a major league-best .400 batting average and entered Thursday’s play tied for the big-league lead with 12 homers and 34 RBIs.

But who had Athletics rookie Jacob Wilson ranking second in the majors at .357 as the season nears the quarter pole? Wilson has played in just 64 career games and quickly has solidified himself as a future All-Star, perhaps even this season.

Sharing the marquee board with Judge seems quite surreal for the 23-year-old shortstop who was the No. 6 overall pick of the 2023 draft.

“It’s a great feeling, for sure,” Wilson said of his name being mentioned with Judge. “Obviously, everybody has seen what he is doing. It’s pretty incredible watching him do his thing on a daily basis. To be up there with him is pretty cool for me.

“I’m excited to play against him this week and see what it looks like in person.”

Wilson had his first career four-hit game during Wednesday’s 6-5 home loss against the Seattle Mariners and has six multi-hit outings in the past eight games. He went 8-for-14 with one game-winning hit in the three-game series against the Mariners and is 16-for-34 (.471) with four walks during the eight-game stretch.

The hot hitting led to Athletics manager Mark Kotsay moving Wilson to the leadoff spot on Wednesday. Kotsay indicated Wilson may be sticking at the top of the lineup.

“I think you’ll see Jacob up there now,” Kotsay said. “Jacob’s earned it. … Jacob has shown enough over the last week. He’s walking and taking pitches, and, obviously, swinging the bat really well.”

Judge arrives in Sacramento in the midst of a four-game funk in which he is 2-for-15.

The two-time MVP just went 1-for-10 in a three-game home series against the San Diego Padres, but the one hit was a homer.

Judge grew up 50 miles south of Sacramento in Linden and starred for Linden High but wasn’t highly sought by major league teams. The then-Oakland Athletics selected him in the 31st round in 2010.

Judge instead went the college route and starred for Fresno State. He was chosen in the first round (32nd overall) by the Yankees in the 2013 draft.

Trent Grisham was one of the heroes of Wednesday’s 4-3, 10-inning win over the Padres. He hit a tying two-run pinch-hit homer in the eighth inning.

Grisham had two homers and five RBIs in the series against the Padres — one of his former teams — and already has 10 long balls in just 89 at-bats. He hit just nine last season in 179 at-bats.

“I’m having fun with the guys, I would say that more than anything,” Grisham said. “The clubhouse is really good in here, led by Cap (Judge). So, I would say the guys have been the most enjoyable part.”

New York is starting right-hander Will Warren (1-2, 5.65 ERA) in Friday’s series opener. Right-hander Osvaldo Bido (2-2, 4.71) will be on the mound for the Athletics.

Warren, 25, struck out a career-high eight in 4 2/3 innings while losing to the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday. He gave up five runs (three earned) and seven hits. Warren hasn’t previously faced the Athletics.

Bido, 29, received a no-decision against the Miami Marlins last Saturday when he gave up four runs on three hits over five innings. He is winless (0-1) over his last three starts. Bido hasn’t faced the Yankees.

–Field Level Media

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Report: Boxing legend Manny Pacquiao coming out of retirement

Boxing: Pacquiao vs UgasAug 21, 2021; Las Vegas, Nevada; Manny Pacquiao (right) fights Yordenis Ugas in a world welterweight championship bout at T-Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-Imagn Images

Boxing legend Manny Pacquiao plans to end his retirement and return to the ring on July 19 against Mario Barrios in Las Vegas, ESPN reported Thursday.

Pacquiao, 46, will be fighting for the first time since losing a unanimous decision to Yordenis Ugas in 2021.

The fight will be for Barrios’ WBC welterweight championship belt. Barrios turns 30 on May 18.

Pacquiao is an eight-division champion who is slated to be inducted into the boxing Hall of Fame in June. He reportedly will formally announce his return to boxing next week. The report stated that Pacquiao has been cleared to compete by the Nevada State Athletic Commission.

In recent years, Pacquiao has been focusing on his political career in the Philippines.

The boxer nicknamed “PacMan” has a 62-8-2 record with 39 knockouts during his career. He won his first major title — the WBC flyweight crown — at age 19 in 1998.

Pacquiao was 54-3-2 prior to turning 33 and 8-5 afterward. One of those losses was to Floyd Mayweather Jr. via unanimous decision in 2015, a bout that reportedly drew nearly $400 million in pay-per-view sales.

Barrios (29-2-1, 18 knockouts) fought to a 12-round, split-decision draw against Abel Ramos last November. This will be his third defense since winning the title by beating Ugas in 2023.

–Field Level Media

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