Major League Baseball’s exhibition schedule opened Thursday with the Chicago Cubs visiting the defending World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers. You know what this means, right?

It means we have enough of a sample size to mathematically eliminate at least five MLB teams from the 2025 World Series chase.

Now, you might say, hey, give these teams a few months to prove they don’t belong in a pennant race. And we’ll respond, hey, these teams had four months since the 2024 regular season ended to do ANYTHING to prove they’re interested in winning—and they basically chose not to.

The first team on our list is a gimme because the Chicago White Sox lost 121 games last year—the major league record since 1900.

When professional teams in the Windy City plunge past dreadful and inept and sink so deep they turn into jokes, they become known as “fun bad.” Sadly for Chicagoans, fun bad is about the only type of fun offered these days. Think Bulls, Hawks, Bears, etc. And nowhere is it funnier or badder than on the South Side. 

Considering the Sox’s big move in the offseason was dealing ace starter Garrett Crochet to Boston for four prospects, their big free-agent acquisition was utility infielder Josh Rojas (1 year/$3.5 million!) and they’ll deal center fielder Luis Robert Jr. as soon as he has a hot fortnight; there’s a non-zero chance they threaten their own record for losses.

Realistically, the Sox are a decent bet to win at least 50 games because baseball is weird like that. But, last we checked, that’s still 35-40 wins shy of being a legit wild-card contender. So scratch them off the list. If you can find somebody willing to wager they won’t post 100-plus losses for the third year in a row, make that bet immediately.

Next up? The Colorado Rockies. Like the White Sox, the Rockies are a legitimate threat to lose 100-plus games for the third straight season.

If you’re wondering why, it’s because they’re stuck in a Catch-22. In general, they try not to make any moves to improve. But on the rare occasions when they convince themselves to take a big swing, they have an alarming tendency to miss like Javier Baez, which reinforces their desire to stand pat.

A prime example is Baez’ former Cubs teammate, Kris Bryant. Since signing a seven-year, $182 million deal prior to the 2022 season, Bryant’s injuries have limited him to 159 of a possible 486 games. But maybe his unavailability has been a good thing—because he has managed a -1.3 WAR when playing.

So perhaps we should be applauding Colorado’s offseason strategy to lay low in the mountains. After finishing 37 games out of first in the NL West and 28 wins below the wild-card teams last year, the Rockies’ boldest move to beef up their roster was acquiring utility infielder Thairo Estrada. Yes, the Thairo Estrada who batted .217 with a .590 OPS last year in San Francisco.

Shall we bother discussing the Miami Marlins? They lost 100 games last year, too. Fearful they might have the personnel not to do it again, they dispatched leading home-run hitter Jake Burger to Texas and traded intriguing lefty starter Jesus Luzardo to Philadelphia for four prospects.

Former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara is back from Tommy John surgery and looking strong, so that will be a big plus—when Miami ships him out of town for more prospects. If the Marlins play their cards right, they might have a farm system ranked in the top half of MLB someday.

It doesn’t seem fair to pick on the Los Angeles Angels, so we’re going to stay positive here while still insisting they won’t contend in the AL West this year. You’ve heard how badly third baseman Anthony Rendon’s seven-year, $245 million contract has worked out for the Angels, right?

Well, here’s the positive news: After being healthy enough to be in the Angels’ Opening Day lineup each of the last four years—only to play 57, 46, 42 and 56 more games the rest of the way due to multiple maladies—Rendon had the forethought to suffer this year’s big injury before spring training.

The Angels announced last week that Rendon required “long-term hip surgery” and will miss the season. While that’s bad for him, we choose to believe he deliberately sacrificed himself to the baseball gods—who have promised in exchange to allow Mike Trout to play a full season after being limited to 111 games the last two years.

Who’s our fifth team mathematically eliminated? Sadly for the Best Fans In Baseball ™, it’s the St. Louis Cardinals. Given a choice between working hard to fill holes and contend or working hard to get maximum trade value for veterans like Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray and Ryan Helsley to accelerate the rebuilding process, the Cardinals have chosen atrophy.

In response, Cardinals fans have chosen apathy.

Here’s the Cards’ sole offseason trade: They stole Michael Helman, a 28-year-old utility player with 10 career major-league at-bats, from Minnesota for “cash considerations.”

Yeah, yeah, the offseason has been full of reports of their attempts to trade Nolan Arenado. Is that to try to win a pennant? Or try to save money?

Ah, the sound of dollars being sucked back into an owner’s bank vault. Now that’s the sweetest soundtrack of spring.